Week 5 Fantasy Stockwatch

Every Monday we'll take a look at the Fantasy Baseball gainers and decliners in our Fantasy Stockwatch.

This time of the year the numbers really tend to speak for themselves. You might have missed the boat on picking up the sleepers that are anything more than periodic flashes in the pan, but perhaps you might want to trade for some gainers and sell early on some decliners. We have five guys here you can buy on and five guys you can try to sell on, but it might be too late. It is out with the old and in with the new this week. If you notice a theme throughout here, it will be: 25-year-olds -- good; old guys -- bad.

This week's best buys

	OF Carlos Quentin, CHW The D-Backs made a mistake letting this guy go. Don't do the same. Sure, he has a career .239 average, but the minor league OPS hog is still only 25 years old and is just now hitting his stride. He is a .300-30-100-100 candidate in the making, so we are only a little surprised he is on pace for .288-35-133-133-14 right now. Seriously, in a great lineup and hitter's park on Chicago's south side, Quentin has emerged as the everyday left fielder and a candidate to go .280-25-90-90-10 this year. Fantasy owners are catching on a little slowly -- his ownership rising from 16 percent in Week 2 to 59 percent now -- so own him in any format right now.
	1B Conor Jackson, ARI Something is up with the water down in the desert. First Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton and now Jackson. Heck, even Quentin above could have been a part of this, having moved up with Jackson. The D-Backs' great farm system is churning out some mashers. Our Al Mechior called Jackson a young Sean Casey, but Casey is merely a Mark Grace ... and Gracie admitted to Jackson's face on TV this weekend he couldn't touch the upside of the 25-year-old. Jackson might not have classic cleanup hitter's power, yet, but his pitch selection is outstanding and he is learning to punish mistakes earlier in the count. In that lineup his OPS bat will produce runs in bunches. He looks like a .300-20-110-100 now, with a .950 OPS. And he could hit 30 homers with a little more early count aggressiveness.
	1B Casey Kotchman, LAA Another nothing much turned something among former highly regarded prospects. Like Jackson, Kotchman has been a 1-to-1 strikeout-to-walk prospect who has yet to show power, but he now has six homers in less than 100 at-bats -- a 37-homer pace. You figured he would hit .300. He hit .295 in his first almost-full season. But his newfound power stroke makes him a candidate to go .300-20-100-90. Like the two guys ahead of him, he is also 25 years old. These guys are just getting started and proving to be better than we have ever seen them.
	SP Micah Owings, ARI In addition to being an emerging young starter and a great hitter for a pitcher, much less a pitcher -- Owings is also 25. How about these 25-year-olds? Owings is coming off his worst start of the season and dealing with a minor ankle issue, so if someone is trying to jump off his bandwagon, jump on it. His 4-0 record is as much a function of his pitching as it is his team's emergence as a potential dynasty. The D-Backs are for real and Owings should enjoy good numbers with that run support and working in the shadow of aces Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson. He could win 15 games with an ERA around 4.00 and upward of 150 strikeouts.
	OF Jayson Werth, PHI OK, so perhaps you are a little late on the guys above and they are owned in all your leagues. Here is a guy who probably isn't. Only 24 percent of CBSSports.com's Fantasy leagues have him on a roster. That shouldn't be. Sure, his four homers last week has the look of a flash in the pan for Shane Victorino's center field fill-in, but Werth has always been a very good hitter -- just one plagued by wrist issues. Those are in his rearview mirror now and he could be on the verge of a huge season as the Phillies' right fielder. That is a great hitter's park and lineup to be a part of and he is on a .292-31-74-87-12 pace. He will likely end up around .265-20-75-80-10, but surely that warrants him being owned in more than just one-quarter of our Fantasy leagues.

This week's losers

	C Jorge Posada, NYY Buying 36-year-old catchers is dangerous. Posada is the latest reason why. He says a sore shoulder appears to be more than the mere strain he had an MRI on weeks ago and now will pay a visit to Dr. James Andrews. Dr. Andrews rarely brings good news. Now, don't panic completely and cut Posada outright. He still might be back in a few weeks. But use this as a lesson for future Fantasy leagues. Players coming off career years at advanced ages are bad buys in Fantasy.
	SP, John Smoltz, ATL Continuing with the old-man's warning: You didn't really buy a 40-something to be your Fantasy ace, did you? Well, Smoltz has a sore shoulder now and might need a DL stint. Even if he doesn't go on the DL, some scheduled Braves days off and a possible four-man rotation could have their Hall of Famer missing a start this week. We have said it in this space early this spring, so hopefully you tried to sell him after his previous hot streak: Smoltz and any 40-year-old is a weekly injury risk. Good luck playing lineup roulette with him.
	DH Travis Hafner, CLE OK, we have to get off the old-man bias. Here is a 30-year-old who should be in his prime years, but is swinging the bat like an old man for the past calendar year. After April last year, Pronk hit just .254. This April he is hitting .226, combining for a line of .249 mark for a full year. That is bad for a shortstop or catcher, much less a DH and your hopeful Fantasy horse. He has just 17 homers, 75 RBI and 68 runs since last year at this time. Ouch. We think he can't possibly have fallen off this quickly, but he has complained of a shoulder issue. Shoulders have notoriously sapped slugger's power, so perhaps Pronk is falling because of a busted wing. If he is, he wouldn't admit it. You just have to ride it out.
	SP Francisco Liriano, MIN Speaking of busted wings, Liriano's troubles aren't shoulder related; it is his return from elbow surgery and his lack of command due to a year off. The elbow shouldn't be considered a problem or the reason he was demoted back to the minors. Elbow ligament replacement surgery has proven to be effective. A veteran with a bunch of years in the game, though, has a better chance to have the muscle memory to be able to come back quicker after a full season off. Liriano was just finding himself in his 2006 rookie year before his injury, so he has less of a pitching dossier to pull from when his command is out of whack. He should eventually find it, but it could take him months at this point.
	OF Austin Kearns, WAS Again, our decliners are either old, injured or old and injured. This Kearns guy is merely 27, healthy and looking completely worthless. This is supposed to be the year Kearns comes closer to living up to his once immense potential -- especially since he is out of cavernous RFK Stadium. Nope. Kearns has shown the potential to be a .265-25-86-85 player, but forget it. He is a picture of empty promises and unfulfilled potential.

Stock advisor

Noah Smith, Bennington, Vermont: Am I being ripped off if I go through with this trade? I would give up: Cole Hamels, SP, Phillies. I would get: Mariano Rivera, RP, Yankees.

Emack: You would be selling low on Hamels and high on Rivera. Rivera looks like perhaps the best closer in baseball again, but refer to our age crisis above. It is bad to trade a productive young player entering his third year as a starting pitcher for a closer who is past his prime -- even if he is still pretty good. Keep Hamels and deal him only for a Jonathan Papelbon or a Francisco Rodriguez-type closer.

You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball Stockwatch questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Stockwatch in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.