There are so many questions, so many answers, so many opinions, so many rumors. It's like those entertainment headlines, which ones do you believe?
Did Dr. Phil's wife leave him? Is Beyonce pregnant? Will the Dolphins draft Jake Long?
I try to follow it. I talk to GMs; I read Clark Judge and Pete Prisco. The best thing I heard came from Chargers GM A.J. Smith.
"All GMs lie in the month of April," he said. "We can't be held accountable, it's what we do."
I think he smiled. But there it is. So we're left to speculate, this year particularly. What does your mock draft look like? Will Matt Ryan be the No. 1 pick, or will he fall to 5th and the Chiefs? Is Brian Brohm of Louisville better than Chad Henne of Michigan? Will the Raiders take Darren McFadden, or do they need help on the defensive line -- Vernon Gholston of Ohio State, maybe?
It's like trying to fill out the NCAA bracket, I'd like to know who has all 32 picks in the right order. Some things we know: Bill Parcells has had the No. 1 pick two times before. In 1993 with the Patriots, he selected Drew Bledsoe, who, despite their rocky relationship, took New England to the Super Bowl four years later. In 1997 with the Jets, Parcells traded down twice and ended up with linebacker James Farrior, who later became a star with the Steelers.
Most experts don't think trading the No. 1 pick is the way to go. There is public relations value to the No. 1 pick, the player who can become the face of the franchise and, hey, usually No. 1 is a pretty fantastic athlete.
Yes, there have been busts, but none of these top choices appears headed for the Ryan Leaf club. Chris Long has the pedigree and the passion, and says that playing for Parcells' long time friend and assistant, Al Groh, has prepared him for the NFL.
Parcells loves to build with big guys, offense or defense.
Offensive tackle Jake Long is 6-foot 7, led all offensive lineman at the combine by lifting 225 pounds 37 times (yikes!) and gave up only one sack all year. As for discipline, Jake Long was called for only two penalties in his entire college career.
And what of the rumors that Team Tuna (Parcells, GM Jeff Ireland and coach Tony Sparano) having given Jake Long a deadline? The team with the top pick is allowed to sign a player before the draft, and reports are that the Dolphins are already negotiating with Long. One rumor is that the Dolphins have given Long a take-it-or-leave-it offer, and Long has much to consider.
Other teams, of course, would grab him quickly. He's projected at right tackle, where the Rams, with the second pick, could desperately use him (or even at left tackle, where Orlando Pace finished the past two seasons on injured reserve).
The money is enormous. From 2003 until 2007, the value of the No. 1 pick shot up from $15 million to $32 million. Long may not like the deadline (if the reports are true), but the money could be far different if he decides to wait.
Kansas City is crazy about Matt Ryan. The Chiefs were very impressed with his interview, and if Ryan falls to No. 5, they will grab him. There is even a background check that goes beyond the combine and the film. Back in September, Ryan had an impressive game when Boston College beat Georgia Tech 24-10. The coach of Georgia Tech, Chan Gailey, is now the offensive coordinator of the Chiefs.
But will Ryan go at No. 3 to the Falcons, or do they covet Glenn Dorsey? The Falcons need a playmaker and a cornerstone to build on. If Atlanta is convinced that there are no lingering issues with his leg, Dorsey would be a perfect fit. Will the Falcons take Dorsey, whom the Atlanta front office went to visit in Baton Rouge this week, or might Ryan be the guy? At 6-5, Ryan is the premier quarterback in the draft, although he doesn't have the status of a Peyton or Eli Manning, a Ben Roethlisberger or even Philip Rivers. Could he be the next Matt Hasselbeck, also of Boston College, or is he the best of a better-than-average bunch?
Why don't the Dolphins seem that interested in Ryan? He has the intangibles, pocket presence, seems to be a winner, and the Dolphins have needed a quarterback for about, oh, a decade.
But the Dolphins, who say less than the late Marcel Marceau, seem to be sending the message that Matt Ryan is ... just ... not ... quite ... good ... enough.
And what of Chris Long? The question about the defensive lineman from Virginia is whether he'd play end in a 3-4 scheme, as he did in college, or move to pass rushing outside linebacker. Parcells, who hasn't gone on record as to whether he'll go with his usual 3-4, nonetheless has the history of moving an end to linebacker, as he did with DeMarcus Ware in Dallas.
Guru Gil Brandt, the former head of player personnel with the Cowboys, said Long got "everything from his dad -- intensity, body build and honesty, and players gravitate toward him."
Howie Long is staying in the background, saying "it's Chris' time, I've had my time." The menacing Hall of Famer from the Oakland Raiders went to many of Chris' games, but sat quietly to the side. At home, they'd go over game film, but, as Howie says, "it's our family business -- other people have insurance or music or plumbing, we have football."
Whatever happens, we know this much. The No. 1 pick of the draft won't be a Long shot.