The Atlanta crowd does get up for big-time opponents at home, but that does not mean the Falcons should be favored by more than a field goal over the Cowboys. Even without Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas should have enough to beat Atlanta on Sunday afternoon. The Cowboys have been preparing for the eventuality of Elliott’s suspension all season, and I believe Alfred Morris (and/or the committee behind him) are prepared to tote the rock plenty without changing Dallas’ game plan. The Cowboys have been nails since their bye week, beating opponents by a combined 101-46, while the Falcons have lost four of five with their lone win coming against the Jets.

Grab the Falcons as a value selection as they return home from an extended three-game road trip.

The revolving door in which RB Ezekiel Elliott spins has spit him back out to Suspension Land, but a bigger loss would be LT Tyron Smith (groin). The Falcons’ crowd was revved up for the home opener, a win over Green Bay, and has been as flat as the team in subsequent losses to less glamorous visitors. With America’s Team in town, the decibel level will be ear-splitting, and the team should respond with a desperately needed straight-up win.

The host Falcons are getting the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers, but not from my simulations, which have the Cowboys winning the game and covering a solid 60 percent of the time.

What have the Falcons done this season to suggest they are a point better than the Cowboys, even if Ezekiel Elliott gets suspended? The Falcons have lost four of their last five, averaging just 16 ppg after starting the season 3-0. Their average score this season has been 21-21 and they've failed to cover their spread rating in six of their eight games. It's a Super Bowl hangover, and for all their complaining about Kyle Shanahan's playcalling against Patriots, they certinaly appear to be missing his playcalling now. Dak Prescott has been an incredible leader and has the Cowboys averaging 28.3 ppg. Dallas is the better team right now by 2.5-points and Atlanta's new Stadium is worth close to 2.5-points. I've got this game a pick 'em with a halfway lean that Elliott will miss it. Cowboys to win outright is the play.

Even without Ezekiel Elliott and left tackle Tyron Smith, the Cowboys are the right side. This is a team that's looked completely different since its bye. Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS since the bye -- emphatic wins over the 49ers, Redskins and Chiefs. Dak Prescott has not turned the ball over since Week 5 and is poised for a huge game Sunday. The Falcons just gave up 201 rushing yards to Carolina, so Alfred Morris will have some success. While you can expect an inspired effort from Atlanta -- it's a must-win situation for the Falcons' playoff hopes -- this is a team that's failed to cover five straight. Grab the field goal.