I'm also taking Kansas City -1.5 in the first half. Look for Alex Smith to lead the Chiefs to an early lead tonight in Oakland.

I don't love that the majority of bets have been placed on Kansas City, but I'm going to trust my model. My simulations have the Chiefs -5.5 tonight making them a fair value at -3 (+108) on the road.

The only issue I see with this game is that you don’t know which Raiders offense or defense will show up. I do know which Chiefs defense will show up. This has the potential to be an ugly game, but one that KC should cover easily.

The Chiefs had their worst game of the season last week, and yet they lost by six to a talented Steelers squad. The Raiders, losers of four straight while dealing with Derek Carr's injury, have only beaten the Jets and defense-less Titans this season. KC has dominated Oakland over their last five meetings and won all of those games by at least six points. The spread is right where it should be at a field goal for the more talented visitor on a short week. It's a bounce back for a healthy and motivated Chiefs team.

The Chiefs have leapt Over in all but one outing as coach Andy Reid has loosened the reins. The Raiders, shockingly, rank 30th for yards gained per game. After a rousing first two weeks offensively, Oakland has scrounged out an average of 13.5 points since. Marshawn Lynch has been limited to an average of 34 yards during the losing streak. QB David Carr is dealing with an injured back that is unlikely to find a cure by kickoff. The Chiefs engaged in an uncharacteristically low-scoring game Sunday that produced 32 points, one fewer than Oakland’s. One week does not constitute a pattern, but you have to wonder if the overachieving K.C. offense is reverting to past form. Injuries are worrisome. The status of RB Charcandrick West remains up in the air after he took a blow to the head. West is not a multiple-touches-per-game guy, but he offers a receiving option for Alex Smith out of the backfield. Of West’s 11 catches, two turned into touchdowns. All of these factors add up to an Under play.

The Chiefs come off their first loss while the Raiders lost their fourth straight in another sluggish performance. Expectations are that the Chiefs will be just fine. They played a really good Steelers defense that had just come off a bad home loss to Jacksonville. It was the perfect spot for the Steelers. But now the Chiefs are in a similar bounceback situation and they can once again take advantage of the Raiders, who every team has been taking advantage of lately. Last season the Raiders were the most entertaining team in the league. This season, they rank No. 30 in offense with only 278 yards-per-game. The offensive line can't block or create holes, Marshawn Lynch looks like he should have stayed retired and Amari Cooper is having trouble catching. I don't consider the Chiefs 6-points better than Oakland on neutral field, which is what the spread is suggesting, but these teams are in way different states of mind right now. Chiefs get the cover.

The Chiefs looked horrible in Sunday's home loss to the Steelers, which wasn't totally unexpected given how Pittsburgh has dominated that series. By the same token, K.C. usually dominates Oakland. The Chiefs have won five straight in the series, with the only non-cover coming by a half-point in a 23-17 win. Tyreek Hill did not suffer a concussion against Pittsburgh, contrary to initial reports. So he should play, giving Alex Smith his most dynamic playmaker. It's tough to go on the road on a short week, but I'm laying the small number.