Will Tiger Need His Driver at the British Open?

Mr. 1 iron,  the driving stat is very disceptive because it includes all drives on par 4 and 5 holes REGARLESS of what club is used off the tee.  Some guys will use driver almost all the time (example V.J. Singh) and some will seldom use the driver because they put a premium on keeting the ball in the short grass.  Tiger would rank much higher on the list if that won him more tournaments, but the PGA still has that silly rule about low score being the ultimate yardstick.   However it would be interesting to see the reasults if all the top pros were in a long drive contest using their normal drivers.  I think Tiger would be pretty close to the top. 

Mister 1 iron,  Thank you for the description of the course>   With no trees to get in his way, and the open field in which to drive, TW might just as well use the driver.  He does a excellent job getting out  the rough.

ConGator,  If they had a long drive contest using their normal drivers, the rule should be you had to stay in the fairways.  If that rule applied, I doubt if TW would be at the top.  There are many others golfers who can hit the fairways more consistantly than Tiger does with their driver.

Agreed on Tiger's accuracy versus some others.  His advantage over his peers is mostly mental.  All those guys are very, very good but I think most other pros "hope" to win but Tiger "expects" to win.   He seems to thrive on pressure.

A long drive contest consist of several attempts not just one.  Miss hits that are wide are not counted.  This is same format as track and field events like shot put, broad jump, etc.  I still think Tiger would be near the top.   

us-swabbie,  I see  that you live in FL.  Are you going to the Players at Saw Grass next week?  We are going to be there  Sat and Sun, mostly at the 17th seeing who  can keep it out of the water.

You are right about TW and the driver.  He can win without it, so I don't guess it is really a problem, other  than I'm sure he wants to master that also.

Nice homework 1-iron, but I think ConnGator hit it on the button.  Tiger hits alot of "stingers", which get factored in avg.  His 270 yd. stinger is a far cry from his 350 yd bombs, of which he hits plenty.  The driving avgs are skewed, as are fairways hit stats.  If Tiger hit driver every possible hole, his accuracy ranking would be worse. 

The question Will Tiger NEED driver, was answered at Hoylake....no.

Lesson #1

The PGATour’s Average Driving Distance metric is known as a "Descriptive Statistic". In fact, because only one element of the family of Descriptive Statistics is provided (the "mean"), it by itself is nearly useless.

Missing from the complete set of "Descriptive Statistics" is the Driving Distance: minimum, maximum, range, and variance. Also missing is the empirical data itself.

Lesson #2

"Descriptive Statistics" are to be distinguished from "Inferential Statistics".

With Descriptive Statistics, one is simply describing what the data shows.

With Inferential Statistics, one is trying to reach conclusions that extend beyond the immediate data.

For instance, we use Inferential Statistics to make judgments of the probability of an observed difference between groups (i.e., Tiger Woods’ average driving distance vs. Vaughan Taylor’s).

Thus, we use Inferential Statistics to make "inferences" from data; we use Descriptive Statistics to simply "describe" the data.

Lesson #3

The PGATour Average Driving Distance metric is based on two data points per round. No further data is supplied. It is a "mean". It is a Descriptive Statistic. Little else can be ‘inferred" from it.

Case in point: in 2007 Tiger Woods averaged 302.4 yards during the season. He ranked #12 overall and placed in the top 93.3 Percentile of all 196 competitors.

For the same period, Vaughan Taylor averaged 283.6 yards and was ranked #147 overall and finished at the 25.1 Percentile.

The difference between their averages was 18.9 yards.

However, one cannot "infer" that the difference between their EVERY drive was 18.9 yards. Further, one cannot expand this difference to mean that over 14 holes and 4 rounds, Tiger Woods enjoyed an incredible yardage advantage over his less powerful fellow competitor. Perhaps yes. Perhaps no.

Lesson #4

Let the following figures represent Vaughan Taylor’s 14 drives over one round of golf. I have taken the liberty of supplying the "Descriptive Statistics":

Data: 279, 289, 282, 290, 286, 288, 284, 287, 285, 277, 281, 284, 280, 278 yards

• Average: 283.6 yards
• Minimum: 277.0 yards
• Maximum: 290.0 yards
• Range: 13 yards
• Variance: 17.5 yards

Let the following figures represent Tiger Woods’ 14 drives over the same round of golf. Again, I have taken the liberty of supplying the "Descriptive Statistics":

Data: 303, 343, 262, 302, 282, 362, 242, 292, 333, 272, 323, 252, 353, 313 yards

• Average: 302.4 yards
• Minimum: 242.0 yards
• Maximum: 362.0 yards
• Range: 120 yards
• Variance: 1423.3 yards

 Important Note - The data points for both players were randomly sorted and then listed as shown using an Excel random number generator. If you don’t trust me, perform the procedure yourself, or simply pick "pairs" of these numbers from two hats.

In ordered pairs, compare each drive of Tiger Woods to that of Vaughan Taylor.

You’ll find that because of the greater variance in Tiger’s drives (some times he uses a 2 Iron, sometimes a 3 Wood, often times he is in the trees), that on at least five (5) occasions Vaughan Taylor outdrives Tiger Woods, sometimes by considerable margins. And, on perhaps one or two occasions they are within a few yards of each other. Repeat the procedure many times.

Certainly, there are times when Tiger is 50 and 60 or more yards ahead of Vaughan Taylor to be sure, but they number three or less and might represent those times on Par 5’s or drive-able Par 4’s when Tiger really lets it all hang out. Light hitting Vaughan? Vaughan Taylor (like a Zach Johnson in the 2007 Masters), simply hits SW for his approach shot on such holes.

 Conclusion:

One cannot simply take the difference between average driving distances (Vaughan Taylor’s and Tiger Woods’ in this example), multiply it times 14 holes, and then multiply it again by 4 rounds and say . . . presto! . . . Tiger has an incredible 1,056 yard advantage over Vaughan Taylor in every tournament. Like I said . . . perhaps yes . . . perhaps no.

To do so is to take a single "Descriptive Statistic" and twist it to yield an "inference", without the benefit of the empirical data and the mathematical methodologies of "Inferential Statistics".

I know that tends to be Baby Geezus’ "stock and trade", but he is rather hopeless. This post simply wants to suggest there are other possibilities beyond the narrow range of that man’s cerebral limitations.

One last note – Winning or losing on today’s PGATour today has little to do with Driving Accuracy or Driving Distance.

Read the recent USGA study on this finding titled, "Statistical Analysis of PGA Tour Skill Rankings 1980-2006 / USGA Research and Test Center / June 1, 2007".

The study was commissioned as part of the effort to determine the effects of technology on the game, and heavily influenced the decision by the USGA to ban the current groove design of irons used on tour effective 2009.