NIT?

If the Herd wins their next three games, they'll be either the #4, #5 or #6 seed.  The #6 seed may be the best place for them to be which would require UTEP to win out (including a home win against Houston in the season finally) and UCF to win 2 out of three of their final games (which is likely).  That scenario would allow give Marshall a likely first round game with SMU.  A likely second round game with Houston (since they would have lost to UTEP in the finale) and a possible semi-final against UAB before facing Memphis in the Championship.

The above scenario would give the Herd a 21-12 record (assuming Memphis beats them in the championship) and wins against both Houston and UAB in the tournament, not to mention a 10-2 record in their final 12 games...I think they are a no brainer NIT bid and possibly put themselves on the bubble (unfortunately, outside looking in of the NCAA tournament). 

Short of that, 5 wins of any kind puts them in consideration for an NIT bid.  That could be 3 regular season games where I really beleive will put them in 5th place.  Beat Rice and UCF and then losing a close game to Memphis.  Or they could win 2 of the final 3 regular season games, which would probably place them in 6th (see above), then three tournament wins to make it to the Championship game.

I hope to get some response to this before the Tulsa game tonight.  I beleive that is the toughest regular season game left.  Since Marshall won in Huntington, Tulsa has won 6 of 8, with the only losses coming at Memphis and at Houston.

The NCAA takes 65 teams, the NIT takes 32 and the CBI takes 16.  That totals to 113 teams.  According to the CBS Sportsline RPI, Marshall is currently ranked 95th.  We all know that approximately 15 teams will get into the tournament who do not have a top 100 RPI will make the tournament via their conference championship. 

We lost to Tulsa, which last week I said would be our toughest game.  I also thought we would need 5 wins to be considered for a bid to the NIT or CBI (they compete for all teams that don't make the NCAA tournament, so one is not necessarily better than the other). 

Right now we need to win against Southern Miss (no easy task) and get to Memphis.  If we win against Southern Miss, we'll be a 5th seed if USF wins (Tulsa is playing great basketball).  I pick Tulsa to win that game.  Marshall wins the tie-breaker and would be the 4th seed.  We would need to beat (likely) UCF in the tournament and would play Memphis in the second round.  Even a loss probably impoves the Herd's RPI. 

With the following happening, the would be 18-13 winning 7 of their last 10 games.  I estimate their RPI to be around 70.  The should get in somewhere.  The reason I won't say a lock is because these tournaments (NIT & CBI) are going to be as much focused on fan attendence and interest as how good the team is.  With all that being said, we're 2 or 3 (if UCF wins Sat.), away from having a post season tournament. 

HOW BIG IS THAT?

Watching the Memphis/Southern Miss game and the game analysist's predictions for the C-USA finish is as follows:

1.  Memphis (what a suprise)

2.  Houston (I guess he has them winning @ UTEP in the finale)

3.  UAB

4.  UCF

5. Tulsa (They're currently a game behind Marshall & UTEP - so, they'd have to win out and Marshall and UTEP finish 1-2).  They are playing great basketball, so winning out is not a stretch...we'll see if the boys can upset that pick tonight!

6.  UTEP

7.  Marshall

8.  Southern Miss

9.  Tulane

10. ECU

11. SMU

12. Rice