Cooperstown, N.Y. is barely a blip on the map, yet this one-stoplight town has more stories to tell than any big city in America. The streets of this throwback of Americana are full throughout the year, but none more so than in August, when the town's main attraction, the National Baseball Hall of Fame, welcomes a fresh batch of faces into its privileged membership.
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Some of these weekends have been more historic than others. Induction weekend in 1999 saw two members of the 3000-hit club (George Brett and Robin Yount) and the all-time strike out leader (Nolan Ryan) enter the Hall together. 1972 saw Yogi Berra, Sandy Koufax, Early Wynn, Josh Gibson and Buck Leonard as a part of the same class. And who, of course, could forget the original induction class of Babe Ruth, Walter Johnson, Ty Cobb, Honus Wagner and Christy Mathewson?
While this initial class might never be topped, the class of 2013 could be one the likes of which we will never see again.
Five years seems like so far away, but 2013 will be the first induction-eligible year for any player who retires after this season. It remains to be seen who will hang up their spikes this year, but speculations can be made about a number of players whose career resumes at least garner debate of their Hall worthiness.
These men are all possibilities to retire after this year and have all had enough success to be worthy of discussion. I have ranked them using the scientific formula of:
Likelihood of this being their last season x Hall of Fame Worthiness
Honorable Mention: Mike Piazza
Piazza's resume stands for itself, as he is likely the greatest offensive catcher in the history of the game. He just misses this list because, in order to be eligible in 2013 rather than 2012, he will have to play at some point this season, a scenario which seems more unlikely with each passing day.
The likelihood of this being Schilling's final season rests on his ability to return from his current arm problems. Regardless, it is probably his last season in a Red Sox uniform, and Schilling might be hard-pressed to find another team that will put up with the spectacle that comes along with having him on their team (blogs, radio interviews, wars of words with reporters, etc.). As for his on-field performance, his 216 wins, 3,000 plus strikeouts, and career 127 ERA plus make him a fringe HOFer. If he gets in, it will be on the merit of his postseason performances. Say what you will about Schilling, but his postseason dominance is undeniable. He was an NLCS MVP for the Phillies in 1993, and he followed that with a World Series co-MVP in 2001 with the Diamondbacks. In 19 career postseason starts, he is 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA. And don't forget about the Bloody Sock. <fstl:edgeinclude source="/name/public/FS/Includes/StyleSheet"> </fstl:edgeinclude>
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Moose certainly doesn't have the glam or publicity of Schilling, but his career totals are much more Hall-worthy. Mussina's career played the "always a bridesmaid, never a bride" role as he never won 20 games in a season, but won more than 10 games for 16-straight seasons, won 19 twice and 18 three times. He never won a Cy Young award but finished in the top five six times. His 254 career wins are the second-most of any active pitcher who hasn't won 300 games. Mussina might not choose to retire after this season, but his contract expires after the season, and given his struggles last season and this year, he might be playing the same season-long waiting game Piazza is playing now.
Five hundred home runs aren't what they used to be, but in Thomas' case, he still has a strong Hall of Fame case. The only two things going against Thomas' case are that he played in a ridiculous offensive era where the value of his Hall of Fame numbers are dropping like the dollar, and he played the second half of his career as a DH. He is a career .300 hitter, though, and let's not discount those back-to-back MVP's. There is a pretty good chance that this latest stint in Oakland is his last hurrah.
Another aging pitcher whose contract expires in 2008, Pedro has the most glamorous Hall of Fame resume of the three mentioned so far. His career numbers are on the fringe, mostly because of his low career win total (209 thus far), but he qualifies for the Hall in the Sandy Koufax mold — a 5-6 year stretch of absolute dominance. For Pedro, it was a seven-year run from 1997 to 2003 that was as good as any in the game's history. In that span, Pedro finished in the top three in Cy Young voting every year in which he started more than 20 games — six out of seven years in all, and he won the award three times. His highest ERA during that span was 2.89. Even more impressive is the fact that the league ERA during that time was around 5.00. His 1.74 ERA in 2000, when the average ERA in the American League was 5.07, ranks as the second-lowest adjusted ERA in baseball history, with the only one lower coming in 1880. <fstl:embedded type="Image" ordinal="6" contentid="8129828"> </fstl:embedded>
Junior's career numbers need no explanation, as he has been labeled a "future Hall of Famer" for almost 10 years now. Griffey met the "best player in the league for a 4-5 year period" requirement for the Hall back in the late 1990's when he was with Seattle and is now just putting the icing on the cake. The only question with Griffey is when he decides to call it quits. He has given no real indication he is finished, but there is almost no chance of his option being picked up for next year given its $16.5 million price tag. The Reds will likely trade Griffey sometime after he hits his 600th homerun, and his trade destination could be his last stop, especially if he ends up back in Seattle. It will be hard to pass up the farewell tour opportunity.
You might not think it at first, but Johnson's HOF resume is significantly better than Griffey's — and Griffey is a shoo-in. Johnson is almost at the 300-win plateau (286 and counting), but more impressive is his 4,644 strikeouts, putting him third all-time and within striking distance of Roger Clemens' second-best total of 4,672. Johnson has a career K/9 rate of 10.77, which is better than both Clemens (8.55) and strikeout king Nolan Ryan (9.55). Johnson is only this low on the list because he will likely try to pitch until he gets to 300 wins, which is a long shot for 2008.
Hoffman doesn't have nearly the HOF case Johnson has, but his resume is strong in his own right, and there is a pretty good chance this is his last season. The all-time saves leader might have been a long shot a few years ago, but with closers now becoming commonplace in the Hall, Hoffman appears to have a plaque waiting for him. The most amazing part about Hoffman is that his career almost ended in 2003, but he bounced back with four-straight 40-save seasons and became the all-time saves leader and the inaugural member of the 500 save club — his HOF ticket. Padre fans can only hope that the rest of this stacked class doesn't force voters to make Hoffman wait to get in.
The real historic nature of this potential Cooperstown weekend begins here. There is the potential for not just a pair, but a trio of teammates to enter the Hall together. John Smoltz is the only one of the Braves' dominant Big Three of the 1990's whose Hall of Fame ticket is not already punched. His numbers make a strong case, with 204 wins plus 150 saves. The only player with a comparable career path is Dennis Eckersley, who already resides in Cooperstown. If not, Smoltz's 15-4 career mark in the postseason and his 2.65 October ERA should push him over the edge. <fstl:embedded type="Image" ordinal="5" contentid="8129828"> </fstl:embedded>
Now the numbers just start getting silly — 300 wins, two Cy Young's, five 20-win seasons and a ring will get anybody in on the first ballot. Tommy G was even nice enough to throw in a World Series MVP in 1995, just in case there was any doubt. If there were ever an indication that a player was in for one last season, it was Glavine's one-year contract with the Braves — making a return to the team with whom he spent his first 16 years.
With the alleged steroid allegations hovering over Roger Clemens, the title of "greatest pitcher of his generation" now rightfully belongs in the hands of Greg Maddux. Just for fun, let's look in awe at the numbers — 350 wins (and counting), four Cy Young's (in a row!), over 3,000 K's, two of the top five seasons ever in adjusted ERA (behind Pedro's season mentioned above and two pre-WWI seasons) and my favorite Greg Maddux stat — seven seasons in which he had fewer walks than games started.
It's unlikely all or even most of these men will be enshrined on the same weekend, but all have made their case (and are still making it) loud and clear. The Braves' Big Three entering together would be a historic event unlike any other, and the trio, always as close off the field as they were on it, might choose to leave the game together for just that reason.
We won't know for sure the future of these great players until after this season, but I'm booking my hotel now. Just in case.
