I was going to bet Big Brown until

Big Brown is the 3-1 favorite to win the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown has won the only three races of his career by a combined 29 lengths and looks like the best horse. The lightly raced colt became the likely derby favorite after winning the Florida Derby by five lengths, overcoming an outside post. The question is whether Big Brown can become the first derby winner since Regret in 1915 with just three prior starts. That doesn't really bother me much because its been done before and this horse is good enough to do it again. But today Big Brown drew the worst post starting position at 20. I wonder if a horse as ever won starting 20th or worse? I think its to much to overcome and some long shot will win in another thrilling Kentucky Derby!

Just like Curlin last year, not enough preps for the Derby.  I am leaning toward Pyro over Gayego and Denis of Cork.

put me down for 100 on Colonel John.....and also put me down for banned sleepy's beer, love that picture Sleepy!!!!!!! 

p.s. can I open it also?

Big Brown looks very good, but Colonel John just worked 5 furlongs at Churchill Downs in 57&3/4 sec. and looks like he might be better than Bg Brown right now and with a more favorable post position at 13 that's where my money will be.

Bob Black Jack is also interesting at 20-1 coming off the synthetic surfaces in California and adding blinkers in the Derby. This horse can run too he got a 109 Beyer speed rating in the six-furlong Sunshine Millions Dash.

Pyro has the ability to negotiate the heavy traffic that accompanies a field of twenty horses, and he closes quickly over the final furlong (see his performances in the Risen Star Stakes and Louisiana Derby).  That sounds like a recipe for a potential winner at Churchill Downs.

As for Big Brown, if my life had depended on it prior to today I might have bet on him to win; he looks like a potential Horse of the Year.  But I've loved the Asmussen-trained horses the last two years, and Big Brown's #20 draw pushed me even further into the Pyro camp.

20 horses !3-1 odds might be too little..would prefer 9-2 or better payout.

I don't think number 20 is THAT bad (no horse on the right) for a great horse.

If a strong horse bursts well from a high post number, stay on his shoulder......  

if it is a slow pace ...just drive fairly hard and reach corner ahead of many horses and get near rail in a comfortable position

If a speed horse takes lead form inside, settle back nicely

If it is fairly fast paced and very messy, it is more difficult......best to not get caught in a mess and end up doing two bad things ...going wide AND getting caught up a mess and being far back with a dozen horses to pass....this is most difficult..would be forced to go out hard enough to be near front and perhaps wide..... UNFORTUNATELY, this very possibly is the way the Big Brown will have to go.....that will be tough...  thus do not like only 3-1 odds.