I know some of you guys out there live, breath and sleep fantasy football. I may not be in that category, but close. Even now I am thinking of a strategy for the coming 08' draft, which if you like can be as early as late June here at CBS. Last season I did make the playoffs for the first time in a long time, only to blow it in the first round with bad weather picks. Anyway, I'll never give up, call it a passion for the best sport in the world and a chance to show your knowledge, or should I say predictions of player success on a weekly basis. SHARE YOU THOUGHTS!!!
Some things I have learned in 7 years of Fantasy Football.
The first round can make or break you, BUT NOT ALWAYS: For two years in a row Shaun Alexander has let me down, big time. Other big names have just not produced or gotten hurt. EX: Steven Jackson, LJ. What I've learned: Defying your own logic and going with a safer pick may not be so bad, example, those with Tom Brady insight got lucky in the first round, though their pick of him really looked good in later rounds. Nonetheless, Brady was a safe 1st round pick and that's my point. Westbrook seems to be a safe first rounder, same with Peyton Manning.
Rounds 2-5 is where you better not make a mistake. This is where the big name players are taken fast and careful choice is crucial. What I've learned: Take the best player available, don't just look to fill a position only, guaranteed you will miss out on a better roster come play time. Exception: I would probably not draft 2 QB's in these rounds, but if you did you likely have trade bait.
Don't underestimate a rookie RB but always be weary of a rookie WR or QB. The odds of a wideout's success is his first year is low, even lower for QB. Ex: Calvin Johnson was good last year, not great. He was highly touted for 07', remember?
Look for great value also in the later rounds, last year I took Winslow at round 10. Need I say more. Sometimes players get overlooked. I don't know if it a fan thing where your league mates are seeking their favorite players or just not paying attention to the position during the draft.
I know many of you are of the logic that you can wait for QB in the later rounds, I would say that is not bad mindset, but would you pass on Brady or Manning if you had the chance? Last year I drafted Kitna late, he was good early, but luckily I picked up former MVP Kurt Warner off waivers and he was great down the stretch, and Kitna was terrible.
Waiver wire play is crucial. Each week there are free agents available you WILL have a big game. The trick is finding them. Of course match up, weather, ect are all factors to consider. Rarely during the season will your draft day starting lineup ever lineup and play, injuries, matchups and the like all come into factor.
Day to day analysis is important. If you have the time look over the stats, waiver wire and add/drops for the day, this is one sure fire way to get a leg up on your league mates.
Never draft a kicker earlier that last rounds. This position varies so much year to year but I see some players taken as early as the 7th or 8th round, poor choice...WAIT, always.
Defense: There are going to be safe picks with better than average return, say for example San Diego, Pittsburgh, New England each year are good teams to shoot for in the middle rounds. One thing is for sure in the NFL, there are going to be teams that surprise in good way, and some that faulter, Baltimore last year was not great, but had been for a few years running. Watch for any personel changes, and Def coordinator changes that can affect the team dynamic. Also schedule, look it over carefully but with a grain of salt.
Coach and personel changes. This is an often overlooked factor that has certain impact. Last year we saw New England dominate the free agent market and frankly I underestimated the impact it would have. 18-1 ain't bad. Brady to Moss, oh to have had that combination in your lineup, if so, you likely won your league.
Schedule analysis: I have tried this approach and with some success. I have even taken it far as player/position vs opponent, one thing I have learned is it will tell you which weeks certain players may succeed but this is not a season defining approach.
Be wary of pre-season magazine rankings, it is still someone's opinion, and who is say the Mr. Roto or some the CBS guys know more than you. Make your own history and rank your players based on your terms. Again, take someone elses opinion with a grain of salt.
Avoid the real early season drafts. Typically these are the guys who live and breath the game and are well prepared even for a late June/early July draft. The level of competition can be tough to overcome and although the excitement starts early, even before training camp, I would be cautious with an early draft.
Analyze, but don't over-analyze. Stats are great but they don't predict outcomes. You know whos good and great and who is a potential sleeper but be cautious and not too risky. I applaud those who took the chance on rookie Adrian Peterson last year. Again, I did not see it coming but looking back I knew Tackle Steve Hutchinson=RB success. So don't ignore your basic thoughts even if ot seems you are taking a chance.
Don't be afraid to take chances. Early rounds of a draft be smart but when you afford some creativity with draft pick go for it. The types of players to consider are those with high potential but with not many takers. Randy Moss last year was incredible, during the regular season that is. I would venture to guess many people were afraid of him and were not willing to take that chance in the earlier rounds. But looking back it really did seem like a great move even before the huge stats occurred. You knew Brady was good, you knew Moss at one time was great, nice combination to take a chance on.
During the offseason stay on top of as many player and coaching changes as possible and with Free Agency starting on Februart 29th, and Draft in late April, the action is soon to start. This is where you will form your opinion on the coming season's teams and individual players. For example: Effect on jacksonville's Defense now that Mike Smith has left as D-Coordinator and taken the Atlanta Falcons Head Coach position. Another example: Washington Redskins now that Gibbs is gone, again.
Expect the unexpected, it happens every year. Be prepared!!! Good Luck!!!
