Dramatic Effects

With news articles by Greg Hansen, Bruce "Columbo" Pascoe, Gary Parrish, the revolving door for assistant coaches (In: Pennell & Dunlap - Out:O'Neill, Simon, & possibly Pastner), and the interest of the 2009 recruits having been shaken, and the very public divorce between Lute & Christine.

The longer this goes on, the worse it gets for Arizona. Especially if Pastner does bolt for Memphis. Olson has been the best thing to happen to Arizona basketball. Heck, the best thing to happen to Arizona sports since he arrived on the scene back in the early 80's. But the program has become a side-show at a circus. It has already started to affect recruiting, and many players have thought about bailing because of the situation. I'm not heading for the hills and "jumping off the bandwagon" that I was never on, but it almost getting to the point where Lute is deconstructing the house that he built.

I'm not on the Lute bashing line yet, and consider the circumstances, he is going about business as usual and doing what needs to be done. But I think these circumstances have hurt Arizona basketball more than any PR Firm, smooth talking by Livengood and Olson, or return of any specific player can compensate for. It is going to take success in the PAC-10 and nothing less than a Sweet 16 appearance to keep Arizona in competition for elite recruits.  Arizona basketball isn't obsolete, but they have taken a huge step back 20 years to where they'll need to pony up and prove something on the court. With all the uncertainty swirling around the program, coaches, etc. it is going to be the teams performance that will get the better 2009 recruits interested in the program.

What do you think the effects of the drama have been?

1. Irrepairable - Only forcing out Olson and hiring a top tier coach will fix this.
2. Troublesome - It's going to take next year's performance to fix it.
3. Annoying - Livengood, Olson, and the new coaching staff are going to have to do some fancy footwork, but it's fixable.
4. Insignificant - Olson and Arizona are too big of names for this to be a problem.

I believe the main problem is Livengood not doing his job.   He should have prepared succession planning prior to the contract extension to 2010.   He could/should have Lute active in the process, but not an after thought once he's 73, not to mention the current circus going on now. 

Livengood also has done a horrific job with the football program, post Tomey. The two coaches are bad, we will miss a bowl again, and its back to the drawing board.  The recruiting fallout to ASU this football season is just another example.  Stoops can blame it on academics all he wants, but at the end of the day state schools have the same requirements. As a Cat Fan and alumni, it's hard to say the Lisa Love has done a great job in a short period of time (i.e. Erickson, Sendek) at ASU.

If Arizona took a step back 20 years, that wouldn't be a bad thing. The Wildcats went to the Final Four in 1988.

Yes, this is messy and the writers love the soap opera. Christine Olson is making this ugly. But Lute has been through much worse -- think about how he kept coaching through Bobbi's struggle with cancer.

He's going to be fine and he'll be energized for working with the team. Arizona is not going to fall off the basketball map.

Our bigger concern is to make sure Mr. Jennings gets his academics in order so he can play next year.

who cares about football...lol...jk.... I agree with a lot of things that are being said about the negative things happenening in the program I have 2 thoughts

1. succession plan

Why is this becoming so poular the last couple years.  call them "coaches in waiting".  I think it works in some situations, but sometimes it isn't great.  AZ doesn't have to figure out who they're going to hire today for when Lute retires. No one really knows when he's going to be done.  I don't personally beleive they need to find out who their next head coach is going to be... and I have a feeling they won't make that mistale again (COUGH.. Kevin O'neil... COUGH)

2. Recruits still getting to the league

AZ is still having players get to the NBA.. Let's face it, the majortiy of players want to go to a school who is going to better prepare them to play professional (NBA).  I believe U of A has the most NBA players behind UCONN in the NBA...

Agree 100%.  Arizona should be fine this year, especially if Budinger and Wise stick around.  The coaching staff has been upgraded (pending Pastner's replacement if he bolts for another position) and as NE2WA mentioned, Olson is energized and determined to restore the program to elite status before he leaves.  My only concern (maybe not my only concern, but certainly the biggest) at this point is that we've lost so much ground in recruiting and it's going to be tough to make up.  We only have one 2009 commitment and he (Gaddy) will be tough to keep - Simon and Pastner were the two who recruited him - but he still says he's committed to Arizona.  If we lose him, Hill, Jennings and Budinger (if he returns), we could be in deep s...  That said, Wise, Withey, Lavender, Negedu and Horne would still be a more talented lineup than most teams in the Pac 10 and is capable of having a great season under the staff that's being assembled.  Talent wouldn't be the biggest issue, depth would (again).

If Arizona took a step back 20 years, that wouldn't be a bad thing.

Not on the talent front, but I'm referring to taking a 20 year backlash in regards to recruiting. With how competitive the PAC-10 is, and the parity in College BBall, if we fall into the struggle of competing tooth & nail for recruits, we're going to become a consistent bubble team.

Lute has been through much worse -- think about how he kept coaching through Bobbi's struggle with cancer.

Yeah, but the difference is that with Bobbi, she wasn't hurting the program by lambasting Lute infront of the media. Equally important is that if Olson can't maintain his own household, competing recruitors will use that as he can't maintain the program. It will be a recruiting ploy against Arizona. So the concern isn't for Olson, but how this whole mess is going to be portrayed and twisted for the potential recruits.

at this point is that we've lost so much ground in recruiting and it's going to be tough to make up.

That's my sentiments exactly. I'm not concerned as to Olson's ability to handle the daily pressures of coaching at 73, even with the added stress of a public divorce. I'm only slightly concerned about the depth and talent level of the team for next year because I believe Budinger will return, and I like the recruits that are shaping the team for the next few years. My concern is that this whole slippery slope is destroying the advantage Arizona has in recruiting for simply being Arizona coached by Olson. For the short term, Arizona will weather this storm and be valid. I'm concerned about the resonating ripple effects this is going to have on the '09 recruits and beyond.

Succession Plan:

I think that Arizona needs to avoid a succession plan, period. This has become a popular trend recently to avoid any temporary decline or lull in talent for elite schools. When done right it is quite effective. However, for the most part it causes a lot of confusion and chaos. It's okay not to have a successor lined up, UNC didn't when Dean Smith took off, and they're doing just fine.

By starting a succession plan, it says that Livengood and the University believe that 73 and growing is too old, and that Olson isn't capable of handling this on his own. Not a good recruiting scenario if your own employer is saying that. When the question arises about who will replace Olson, since that will new recruits will experience in the coming years, Arizona simply needs to be dedicated to hiring the best coach available, and make that known.

There's no simple solution, by any extent of the imagination, but a succession plan where the future coach is the AHC, is probably the worst thing Arizona could look to do.

I agree 100% Naterb... thanks for repeating what i said...lol...as for this hurting the recruiting process, yes it probably doesn't help.. but assuming Budinger leaves this season (who knows for certain), we only need 2 more guys for our 2009 class assuming Gaddy stays committed... I believe our seniors next season are onobun, bagga, and tangara... remember only one of them plays... so this could be seen as a positive... Here's the major downside: if Hill and Jennings (and Chase??) were to jump to the NBA, then this might be a major issue... just trying to put a positive spin on things... not to look to far ahead, but someone brought it up.. and it's a good point

Naterb, since you mentioned UNC... take a look @ their 2009 class already... depending on the site you look at...I believe they have 4-5 star recruits already committed... How the Wear bros. got out of the hands of UCLA and U of A is a little surprising, but I don't know much about that situation and UNC obviously is a phenomenal school

I can't remember a situation like this, where this far into the off-season there are still so many unknowns.  And, in the case of UA, the results of those unknowns may be the difference between a top 10-15 program and one that misses the tournament all together.  Here's how I see it (and I'm assuming Pastner's gone, since that's what I'm hearing):

Best case

Budinger and Wise return, Jennings does what's necessary to qualify, UA hires Wyking Jones to replace Pastner.  If all of this happens, we'd have a very solid starting five next year with some depth and a much-improved coaching staff.  We'd likely have to endure some bumps early in the season because of youth and a tough schedule, but come the Pac 10, the guys would have some big game experience, be used to playing with each other and be comfortable with the system.  A starting lineup of Jennings, Wise, Budinger, Hill and Withey would be solid.  Or, Olson could opt to go with Jennings, Budinger, Horne, Hill and Withey, with Wise coming off the bench, and that would be solid as well.  Recruiting would pick back up, both because of renewed success on the court, but also because of an improved staff and Jones' ties to the AAU circuit.

Worst case

Budinger stays in the draft, Wise transfers to Houston, Texas or Baylor, Jennings doesn't qualify and UA hires Reggie Geary to replace Pastner.  If this happens, there's no way - in my mind - that UA makes the tournament.  They'd have no true point guard, no experience at the 2 and limited experience at the 3, and very little depth from 1-5.  Our starting five would likely be Lavender, Johnson, Horne, Hill and Withey and, while there's some talent there, we'd have a point guard playing out of position (and a true freshman at that), a sophomore shooting guard with very little experience and very little depth behind them.  In fact, we'd have NO other guards unless we picked up another 2008 player, and there's not much left out there.  Recruiting would continue to suffer, as elit