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Beware of the filly in the field. She has been the one down the strecht to post 100+ speed ratings and is coming out of the gate with a fast starter. Could that create an effect to pulling ahead. In this sized field and with the amount of slow runners this year below 100, getting out in front or away from the large pack is important before the turn.
I like Big Brown, but his 1/4 has to be darn ness flawless in order to go into the first turn with any momentum.
Bob Black Jack is a great choice as well, but I think Colonial John is too slow to be considered one of the top three. One to think of in terms of showing at still decent payout for larger bets is recapturtheglory. Taking all posts i nthe Illinois Derby and running a 102 a few weeks back. It is a nice question to think the horse peaked too soon or just started to hit his stride.
Bob Black Jack to win
Recapturetheglory to place
Big Brown to show
I still will put some money for the philly as she is use to the track and posted 100. She is higher than the numbers indicate and a solid change to show as well considering her slot.
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