Yea, I think you can explain some of the difference in performance just as random variation - players have a certain range that they will fall in during most years. At the same time, we can't forget these are human beings, not machines, and that outside factors can have a major effect - pressure, expectations, teammates, team mentality/attitude, atmosphere, city, etc.
There were warning signs with Zito anyway - he rarely had consistent control - walked 80-90 guys a year, but in Oakland he clearly got away with it for whatever reason. Could be any number of things, either baseball related or not.
And yea - the lesson is clearly there - there are major risks signing any athlete to a 100m plus contract - especially when all of it is guaranteed. It's not always horrible - look at what Beltran and Pedro did for the Mets, or Manny(or Pedro again for that matter) for the Sox - both franchises really turned around. But it really is hit or miss, and honestly, you never know. Manny could have been another Albert Belle, and Pedro could have been Zito...did the Sox know something we don't, or did they just get lucky?
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