It's pretty clear that the PAC-10 will be much easier next year than it was for the '07/'08 version. With significant changes from top to bottom in the league. However, I see most of it as downward movement. It's almost as if a team doesn't even need to improve to place higher in the standings. But that's almost. ASU, just because you aren't losing anyone doesn't mean you're going to win the conference.
UCLA, Washington and Oregon are almost completely reloading, and USC and Arizona are replacing primary roles for their teams. Add into the mix Arizona State and you've got the teams that will makeup the top 6 conference teams.
Ouf of the top three (Arizona, USC, and UCLA) it is going to depend on three players: Chase Budinger, Mbah Moute, and Collison.
Scenario One: Budinger returns, Moute and Collison leave - Arizona will win the conference with USC in second and UCLA in third.
Scenario Two: Budinger and Moute returns, Collison leaves - Arizona wins, UCLA in second, USC in third.
Scenario Three: Budinger and Collison return, Moute leaves - UCLA wins, Arizona in second, USC in third
Scenario Four: Budinger leaves, Collison and Moute return - UCLA wins, USC second, Arizona Third
Too early to call, IMO. It'll all become more clear on June 16th, when we know for sure who's staying and who's leaving, but here's my take based on where I think players are leaning...
UCLA - Their incoming class is phenomenal. I think they'll lose Collison in addition to Westbrook, Love and Mbah a Moute (and Aboya won't be playing next year as he focuses on academics). But, they have so much talent coming in, and they've been playing a lot together (anybody see the game last weekend between the USA and the World, where team USA had four of UCLA's incoming freshman, all playing significant minutes?), so they'll have developed some chemistry before even arriving on campus. I think they'll struggle a little early in the season - their youth will make them inconsistent - but Howland will have them playing very well by the time the Pac 10 season rolls around.
UA - I think we'll lose Budinger, but I think Wise ends up staying. We'll have a lot of talent next year with Jennings, Hill, Wise, Horne (who I think will flourish in Olson's system and will get significant minutes), but while we won't be as young as UCLA, we will be asking a lot of minutes from our freshman, including our point guard. And, I think depth is going to be a problem - again - next year, especially if Budinger leaves and Olson doesn't add another 2008 recruit.
USC - Derozan's the real deal and will do a more than adequate job of replacing Mayo. They return a real solid core of players in Hackett, Johnson, Gibson and Jefferson. But they, like UA, will have a short bench (shorter in terms of talent, but not quantity). Outside of Derozan, their incoming class is pretty weak, although they did get 'Lil Romeo (many think that they had to take Lil Romeo in order to sign Derozan). What a joke...
ASU - Returning everyone. They had a solid season - still only worthy of an NIT bid - and we'll find out if they can duplicate or improve on it. I think the coaches in the Pac 10 will find a way to shut down Harden and Pendergraph, and if you can do that, ASU is a very mediocre team. The coaching in the Pac 10 is too good - especially with the return of Olson and Montgomery - to let ASU continue to win with just two primary weapons.
Washington - They're adding a solid recruiting class and only losing Appleby. Brockman was dominant this year and will only improve, and Overton's a solid PG.
Oregon - Yes, they have a pretty good incoming class, but I can't see them replacing Taylor, Hairston and Leunen. I also heard that Viney is planning to transfer...
Stanford - Much depends on who they hire to replace Johnson, but they can't replace the Lopez twins. They'll still have Hill, Fields, Goods and Mitch Johnson, and they have an "okay" class coming in, but they'll have to re-tool their entire offensive and defensive scheme without twin 7-footers in the lane and that, combined with adjusting to a new coach, will be too much to overcome.
Cal - They could be better if Anderson returns. They're building a solid staff with Montgomery, DeCuire, and now Jay John. They've got a good SG coming in, in DJ Seeley and he'll develop well under DeCuire.
Washington State - No way they have the same success without Low, Weaver and Cowgill. They'll bring back Baynes, Harmeling and Rochestie, but they don't have much experience or talent after those three.
Oregon State - On top of having no returning or incoming talent (Eshaunte Jones is decent, but their lone '08 commitment as of now), they have a new coach who brings a stellar 30-28 career record - all at Brown - to Corvallis. It's going to be another long year for the Beavs.
Excellent analysis Hosh. The only spot where I'll quibble is Wazzu. Tony Bennett is a heck of a coach who can play up-tempo or slow you down depending on his guys. He does so much with so little you can't write them off. They're not going to be a No. 4 seed in next year's tournament, but they will be a factor in determining the conference winner by knocking off a couple teams.
I don't know if I agree on Bennet's ability to run an up-tempo offense because we haven't seen him try it yet, but I do agree that he's a solid young coach. I also think they'll be better than ninth in the conference next year. Klay Thompson is kind of flying under the radar, as he's been a late-bloomer that came on strong recently. He won't provide the defense that Weaver did, but he will allow them to do some new things offensively. Rochestie doesn't have great professional prospects, but I'll expect his contribution next year to be similar to what Chris Hernandez used to give the Cardinal. I thought he deserved a spot on the all-conference team last season, at least ahead of Low. He made that team run offensively. Baynes, Harmeling and a couple of other holdovers won't make them great, but they should still be a tough out for most PAC 10 teams.
(many think that they had to take Lil Romeo in order to sign Derozan). What a joke...