Sorry for repeating myself, but I've been arguing this point here and there for a while now and I think it's time for this topic to get it's own thread so more people can respond. Hopefully this will also help some of you understand the reason WHY the Dodgers offense struggles so much and what they need to do to get better.
First of all, for those who don't understand the difference, "over-rated" does not mean the same thing as "meaningless" or "unimportant." If you're clear on that than move on.
Why is batting average over-rated? For example, batting average when runners are in scoring position is a far more important stat than overall batting average. If you have a high percentage of getting a hit when the bases are empty this can easily scew the batting average statistic into looking impressive, when in reality the actual production of the player might be minimal due to not getting hits when it matters. Taken just as an isolated incident, getting a hit (besides a HR) when the bases are empty is meaningless (this time I actually am saying "meaningless", "unimportant", useless or without benefit) to your teams success unless one of the guys behind you knocks you in. Unless the rules of baseball changed without me knowing it I believe the goal is to out-SCORE your opponent. Who gets the most hits? Who cares? What matters is how productive the base hits are. There are much better production-indicator statistics out there than batting average. And that's my point.
Now, of course someone has to set the table. You can't hit with runners in scoring position if someone first didn't get on base. So, I'm not saying that overall batting average is a meaningless stat. It's an indicator of getting on base. But it's not the BEST indicator of this, which is why I think it is an over-rated stat. The best indicator of getting on base is of course the on-base percentage. Now, this is an UNDER-rated stat. A good table-setter, preferably the 1 and 2 spots in your lineup, should have guys with a good OBP in order to give the heart of the lineup (sluggers) a chance to drive them in. Runs scored is another grossly under-rated stat because how many RUNS a player is able to score DIRECTLY correlates with offensive production and team success. Runs scored takes so many things into consideration -- the ability to get on base either by getting a hit or a walk, the ability to steal bases, the ability to run the bases fast and intelligently...and of course it is also an indicator of how adept the "sluggers" behind you in the lineup are at driving you in.
And this brings me to slugging percentage, which is a much more important stat taken all by itself compared to batting average because it relies less on the players behind you. If you get a lot of extra base hits, especially homeruns, you don't have to rely as much on the other players ability to drive you in. You are either driving yourself in or you are making it easier for the next person to do so. It's an important stat and each team needs at least one guy with a very high slugging percentage in order to score a lot of runs.
Now here's the key mix of ingredients: If you can find a player that combines a high slugging percantage with a high batting average with runners in scoring position you just found yourself an RBI machine. And RBI's along with runs scored are the two MOST important stats correlating to offensive production. I believe the Dodgers have a whole group of players with the ability to get on base and score runs. They have a potential great leadoff hitter in Rafael Furcal. They have a number of guys that I think are suited perfectly for the #2 spot (Ethier, Loney, Martin). They have the table setters. What they don't have is the slugger to consistently bring them home. And run production is WHAT IT'S ALL ABOUT!!!!!
So, in a nut shell, this is what is wrong with the Dodgers lineup. They have plenty of table-setters, but they have no one with the ability to be a high producer of clearing the table once it is set. An RBI machine is what the Dodgers are lacking. And until they get a guy like that they are always going to struggle offensively. I'm not bashing Ethier & Loney because I think either one would make a great #2 guy in the lineup. They are patient at the plate, can get on base regularly and have occassional pop. And Kemp has the potential to be a nice #3 or #5 guy if he develops. But I want, no...I DEMAND a true and legit clean-up hitter to put in the heart of the lineup in order to produce more runs. And if we can get that guy by trading Loney and/or Kemp and some other prospects that is a sacrifice I'm willing that they take. It's crazy that Dodger fans have been content with this lackluster offense for so many years. It's laughable that a practically retired Jeff Kent has been our best offensive threat for the past 3 years!!!! And Andruw Jones absolutely SUCKS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! This is not a viable option and the Dodgers wasted their money on him.
Ever since we traded Piazza (in his prime no less) we have for the most part been missing this kind of player. Shawn Green flirted with filling this role for us for a couple years and had some success. But in the end it turned out to be a very short-term fix. And it hasn't been addressed at all since. It is time to go out and get a slugger. If anyone disagrees I would love to know why you think RUN PRODUCTION is over-rated.
