LATE WITHDRAWALS: Cameron Beckman (as of Wednesday at 11:15 a.m.)
It hadn't happened in a while, but Sunday was one of those days when I looked at the golf results and said "Damn, I really should have picked (insert winner here)."
After all, in last week's column I decided to focus some of my picks almost solely on a player's form in the previous year's tournament, mostly thanks to all the reader e-mails I received about the reasoning behind their selection of Johnson Wagner.
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Love him or despise him, you have to admit Rory Sabbatini has game.
(Getty Images)
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Somehow, while doing that, I managed to not even really take a minute to look at
Boo Weekley, who now has two consecutive Verizon Heritages to his name. Don't ask me why, but the redneck just didn't even come across my mind.
This week, I promise I will be thinking more clearly, as I have a feeling my Fantasy Golf game at the Byron Nelson will be as stellar as my real golf game was on Friday.
Despite having months away from an actual course, where I routinely shot in the 90s-100s last year, I somehow managed to produce a 79 at Colony West last week that included 13 pars -- 10 straight at one point -- three bogeys, a double and a triple.
It took 18 years of playing for me to experience the round, and it's something I'll remember for a long, long time. It was just one of those days where everything seemed easy, from drives to putts, and it made me realize how important greens in regulation are, because once you're on the green in as many shots as you're supposed to be, things can't go horribly wrong. No water, no trees ... just you, your putter, the ball and the hole.
That's enough bragging for now ... about my real golf game, anyway. That's because if Nick Dougherty hadn't withdrawn last week, I would have had a legitimate shot at getting five of my picks into the top 25 for the first time this season. Dougherty's mum is sick, so he had a very good reason for going back home and I won't hold any grudge against the young Englishman.
Stewart Cink and Jason Bohn, a 75k guy, came through with top-10s for me, while first-round leader Justin Leonard and Kevin Na, thanks to a nice final round, grabbed top-25s. However, for the second straight week, all three of my middle-tier picks missed the cut. It's a good thing I'm a fan of taking three bigger names and two 75k guys most weeks for my lineup, instead of spreading my money out with five mid-level players. Hooray for studs and duds!
Speaking of studs, they're pretty hard to come by this week at the Byron Nelson -- especially American ones. The highest-ranked Yank in the field is Sean O'Hair, while only two of the top eight most-expensive players are American (2007 champ Scott Verplank being the other one). That means you will likely have to go with at least a foreigner or two in Irving, Texas if you're leaning towards picking a couple of favorites.
The five biggest names this week are Adam Scott, Rory Sabbatini, Trevor Immelman, Sergio Garcia and Luke Donald, who will all cost you over $287,000 each. That means you can only afford to pick two of those guys and still have enough money left over for your final two selections. I'll give you my two picks from that group later in this column.
One thing I can't give you in this column, however, is a decent look at how recent winners have fared on this week's host course, TPC Four Seasons Las Colinas. That's because this is the first year since 1993 that the layout has been the only course involved in this event as the Cottonwood Valley course at the Four Seasons was also used in this event from 1994 until this year. Oh, and the course just underwent an $8 million renovation that was significant enough that you should basically ignore all of the previous stats, especially the putting ones that came on what were claimed to be some of the worst greens on tour.
Anyway, I think I've been a little too much into my stats lately, and we all know you basically need to stay out of the trees, hit greens on a regular basis and make putts to succeed in any given week.
So here we go with my picks for the final Byron Nelson in April for a while. The tourney is moving to late May next year to avoid this dead spot in the schedule.
The Byron Nelsons ($200,000 and above)
Rory Sabbatini ($296,750) -- As much as the guy gets under my skin, you can't ignore Sabba's record in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. He finished T3 here last year and has three top-25s in his last four appearances. At the Colonial, he has three top-sixes in his last five trips, including a win last year. While he might not be playing his best golf lately, he did have two top-threes earlier this season.
Luke Donald ($287,000) -- Donald struggled at the Masters, where the course is probably a little too long for him to contend on a consistent basis, but he shouldn't have any such trouble this week as he has five straight top-20s in the Nelson, including a runner-up finish last year. He is also second on tour in scoring average this season, behind you-know-who.
Anthony Kim ($238,250) -- Yup, I'm back on the Kim train this week, after a number of weeks waiting at the station. He came close to his first PGA Tour title at the Verizon, and sandwiched rounds off 66 and 67 around a poor 77 at last year's Nelson. We all know it's a matter of time before this guy lifts a trophy, so why not this week?
Also consider: Ian Poulter, Brett Wetterich, Pat Perez
The Iron Byrons ($75,001-$199,999)
Nick Watney ($196,000) -- Watney is playing some decent golf of late, with three top-25s in his last four events including a great T11 at the Masters. He hasn't played very well at this tournament, with two missed cuts in three appearances, but he did put together a superb round of 64 on Friday two years ago, so there is a glimmer of hope. Hopefully he can stay out of the bunkers at Las Colinas, because his sand save percentage is a scandalous 38.78 percent.
Ken Duke ($150,500) -- Duke finished T7 here last season and looked good after two rounds of the Verizon before fading on the weekend. He has missed a ton of cuts this season, but he has shown some signs of finding his form over the last month or so. He's a bit of a risky pick, especially with the way my mid-level guys have been going lately.
J.J. Henry ($124,500) -- Henry may be a Connecticut guy at heart, but he played his collegiate golf at Texas Christian and has three straight top-15s at the Nelson, so he certainly has a soft spot for the Lone Star State. After missing four of his first seven cuts with no top-25s, he has made three weekends in a row but will need to get his putter going if he wants to contend this week (he's 162nd in putting average).
Also consider: Kevin Na, Bo Van Pelt, Matt Goggin
The J. Byrons ($75,000)
Omar Uresti -- I'm going to pick three guys with Texas ties in this final grouping, because I can only pick Steve Marino and John Merrick so many times and my grandfather was from the state, so I can claim some roots. Uresti, who is Texas-born and bred, does deserve consideration on his own merit though, with two straight top-six finishes at the Nelson (he skipped last year's event). He has missed five of seven cuts this season, however, so be warned.
Bob Estes -- Estes was born in Texas, went to UT and has a Texas Open title to his name. He's also playing pretty well right now, with a T6 in Houston and a second-round 69 at the Verizon that wasn't good enough to help offset an opening 76. He missed five of his seven cuts this season, so, to be honest, he didn't have much to improve on.
Rich Beem -- I did have Cameron Beckman in this spot initially, but he withdrew on Wednesday morning with presumably the same illness that knocked him out of the Verizon. So, with him down I'm going to replace him with Rich Beem, who apparently lives in Austin. If you haven't read his book yet, do it!
Also consider: Shigeki Maruyama, Steve Marino, John Merrick (had to do it, sorry)
My Golf Challenge Lineup
Sabbatini, $296,750; Donald, $287,000; Kim, $238,250; Goggin, $92,000; Merrick, $75,000.
Last Week (not pretty)
Cink (T7) $160,050; Na (T17) $74,433; Dougherty (WD) $0; Brian Gay (MC) $0; Carl Pettersson (MC) $0. Total -- $234,483 (14,000th). Segment Two -- $1,429,983 (8,608th). Overall -- $9,481,581 (4,026th).
Congrats to 'The Frogs', whose lineup of Weekley (won), Kim (T2), Aaron Baddeley (T2), Lucas Glover (T7) and Matt Jones (T73) was good enough for a nice total of $2,478,665 and a victory by $350,182 over a group of three.
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