The Diamondbacks average over 10 runs a game and have scored 131 runs on the season, which you might think would be a great mark for an over team, but they're only 10-10-4 to the over the season, meaning they're just as likely to go under as over. What aided my decision today was the starting pitcher, Drew Rasmussen for the Rays, who has allowed only two runs in four starts and has stayed under in three of his starts. Corbin Burnes has gone over three times, but he had his best start in his last outing, even though it went over, he allowed two runs in six innings to the Cubs in a 13-11 game. I'm on the under here.

The Rays had won five straight over the Diamondbacks until last night, when the Diamondbacks won 5-1, leaving the Rays 0-4 on the road this year. I'm looking at the total going over with today's starters, Taj Bradley for the Rays and Eduardo Rodriguez for the Diamondbacks, because both bend but don't break. Rodriguez has given up at least three runs in each of his four starts, and all four of Bradley's starts have gone over the total. We can get an early head start with these pitchers with runs on the board and then let the bullpen take care of everything else. The Diamondbacks and their opponents score 10 runs a game. Just the over.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have lost to the Tampa Bay Rays five straight times, but that was last two years, and this year's Rays have lost five of their last six games and have a 9-13 record. They also have a starter in Zack Littell, who the Rays have lost all four starts behind this season, with two of them being his fault, allowing 12 runs combined. Brandon Pfaadt has been incredible in his last two starts, and Arizona has won his last three starts. He's only allowed one run combined between his last two starts. Diamondbacks to win.

Last night's opener in the Blue Jays-Astros series was 7-0 Astros, which stayed under the total, making that 12 unders for the Astros and 14 unders for the Blue Jays. We got a great spot tonight where the under looks like the play with the Blue Jays averaging 3.7 runs per game and the Astros averaging 3.8. We also got a pitcher in Chris Bassitt that has allowed only two runs in his four starts, and all four stayed under. Under is the play.

The Astros have beaten the Blue Jays five out of the last six games, including last night in the first of three in the series. I bet the Blue Jays in this game because I think I have an edge in the pitching matchup with Chris Bassitt pitching against Ronel Blanco. Bassitt has been fantastic in all four starts, allowing only two runs, and in his last game, he struck out 10 in five innings. Blanco has allowed an average of three runs in each of his four starts. Blanco has gone over three of his four starts, while Bassitt has stayed under all four starts. Toronto gets the win.

The Houston Astros almost got the sweep over the San Diego Padres over the weekend, losing 3-2 on Sunday, and now they get the Toronto Blue Jays, who are 12-10 on the season. Today, I get Hunter Brown on the mound, who is pitching like one of the best in baseball, with no runs allowed in his last two games, and this will be the first time at home since March 28th when he faced the Mets. The Astros have won four of the past five meetings with the Blue Jays. Astros to win.

It will be 52° with 11 mph winds blowing out to left field at Citi Field today for the Phillies-Mets game. The Mets are 9-1 at home this season and come off a four-game sweep of the Cardinals. They’ve also won five of the last six meetings with the Phillies. The Mets have lost Taylor McGill's last two starts, but the real reason I bet this game was because of the ineffectiveness of Aaron Nola, who the Phillies have lost all four of his 2025 starts, including his last one against the Giants when he gave up seven runs. I'm on the Mets today.

The Astros go for the sweep today against the Padres with Framber Valdez on the mound. They're 6-5 at home and 10-10 all together, but the sweep likely doesn't occur because of Dylan Cease. Valdez gave up seven runs in his last start against St. Louis and allowed 10 hits in four innings of work. The Padres are 15-6 this season but only 3-5 on the road. They need to fix that road record tonight, and the number one bats (.275) in MLB take care of business. Padres to win.

The Pistons are 7-point dogs at the Knicks in Madison Square Garden for game one, even though the Pistons have won the last three meetings, including two of them at MSG. That's too much to give to a team that's loaded with confidence, knowing they can beat this Knicks team because they have been doing it. For the Pistons to win again, they will have to pressure the Knicks with a scoring blitz, which means Cade Cunningham shooting lights out for the Pistons. He's the key. The future is now for him in the NBA. In the game played on April 10th at Detroit, the Knicks shot 47% from the field and 32% from three-point range and still lost 115-106. I like the Pistons.

Coors Field is 43° today with winds blowing out at 6 mph and an 8% chance of precipitation. The Rockies are in bad shape at 3-15 this season at a minus-1,137 profit margin while averaging only 2.8 runs a game. They even fired their hitting coach this early in the season. Mackenzie Gore was outstanding in his first start of the year, but his last three have been subpar as the Nationals are 1-3 behind him. The good news for the Rockies is that they're 2-4 at home. Chase Dollander was pitching in the Rockies 12-5 win against the A’s, allowing four runs on April 6th. The number is set appropriately for the Rockies situation, but I still have to go over.

The Grizzlies have won and covered the last three meetings with the Mavericks, but the Mavericks won the first meeting on December 3rd, 121-116. Four of the last five meetings between these two teams have stayed under the total. In a game on March 7th, the total was 237.5 compared to this one at 223 ½. Both teams have been strong over teams this season, with Memphis over 11 games over .500. I think this game could be a blowout by Memphis, which means they could score 120, but Dallas might only score 92, which stays under. In playoff basketball, they play defense. Just Memphis to cover.

It's going to be 50° at Wrigley Field with winds blowing out to the left field at 23 mph and precipitation at 6%. This is going to be a high-scoring game, and the total reflects it at 11. Arizona has gone 8-8 on the over despite scoring 9.79 runs per game, but the Cubs are over 13-7, scoring 10.1 runs a game. Both teams have won 12 games, and Corbin Burnes hasn't been himself in the first three starts, allowing 11 runs with all three getting over. Just the over.

The Heat have gone over the total in their last five games, and in this game, I'm reminded of when they went to New Orleans and won 153-104 on Friday night. They shot 56% from the field and 44% from 3-point range, hitting 20 of 45, 60 rebounds, and 36 assists. Just an awesome display of offense. They go fast, forcing the tempo. They're going to put some points on the board against the Bulls, and maybe even win..

The Cincinnati Reds have won four in a row and six of their last seven to up their run total to 4.12 per game. They play the Seattle Mariners, who have lost all four games on the road that they played. The Mariners have lost two of three behind Bryce Miller this season, with him allowing eight runs in 16 innings. Nick Martinez has given up 11 runs in his three starts without a win, but he'll likely get caught up in the Reds' winning streak. Reds win.

The Memphis Grizzlies blew out the Golden State Warriors on December 19th, 144-93, but the Warriors came back and won both meetings in 2025, including the latest one on April 1st, 134-125. The Warriors have won and covered the last two meetings, with both getting over the total, something that looks similar to what I think is going to happen tonight. The Grizzlies won four of their last six games, but they're missing something since firing head coach Taylor Jenkins nine games ago. The Warriors lost the last game of the year to the Clippers and are relegated to this play-in tournament, but they'll be fine with Jimmy Butler playing well. They've won 23 of his 30 games. Warriors win and cover.