Micah's Past Picks
The Warriors had a 3-1 lead in the opening round playoff series against the Rockets, but now it's even at three games apiece. The Rockets have won the last two and covered the last three. The Warriors are showing their age, and the Rockets have more spring in their legs late in the game. Jimmy Butler, Steph Curry, and Draymond Green are running out of gas in the 4th quarter of the last two games. The true leader of the Rockets has been Fred VanVleet, who struggled early on in the series but has come on lately, scoring 25 points or more in the last three games. Rockets win.
We have a spot here where both teams score over eight runs a game, and the Tigers are currently hot, going over six of their last seven games. Before yesterday's loss, they scored nine and 10 runs against the Angels. The Angels have lost the last four behind starter Jack Kochanowicz, who allowed 15 runs over that span. The Angels allow 5.25 runs per game. I'm on the over.
It's going to be 62° with 15 mph winds blowing out to centerfield in San Francisco today with no chance of rain. Logan Webb’s on the mound, and he gave up five runs in five innings in his last start against the Padres. German Marquez is scheduled for the Rockies, and he's the reason for this bet. He's given up five runs or more in his last four starts, and the Rockies have lost all six of his starts. Normal pop flies get a bump from the wind. Just the over.
The A's have won three straight games and are two games out of first place in the AL West with an 18-15 record. The amazing part about their record is that they're 12-6 on the road. The A's are an underdog today because of Miami’s Max Meyer on the mound, but he only lasted four innings in his last outing, giving up five runs to the Mariners. I think he has trouble again. The Marlins have lost six straight. A’s to win.
The Padres have beaten the Pirates seven straight times, including a 9-4 victory last night to start a three-game series. The Padres have lost three straight games behind Randy Vasquez, and he blew up in one of them, allowing six runs to the Tigers two weeks ago. Today, he should have a good five innings based on his five other good starts and get the Padres started, who have won three straight. Bailey Falter has allowed 10 runs in his last two starts. Pittsburgh has lost five of its last six. Padres win today.
The Dodgers have won the last five meetings with the Braves, including a sweep at the beginning of April. The Dodgers are picking up right where they left off last year with a 21-10 record, but they're only 6-7 on the road. The Braves have won nine of their last 12, but their loss to the Rockies yesterday dropped them to two games under .500, which isn't bad considering they started 0-7. The play today is the over because the Dodgers are going to hit Grant Holmes, who allowed six runs in his last start, and the Dodgers score 9.6 runs a game. Just the over.
The Yankees have won all six of Max Fried's starts, with him getting credit for five of the wins. He's allowed no runs in three of his last four starts and only five runs on the entire season. I'm taking the Yankees run-line here. He beat the Rays 4-0 just 12 days ago, and they've gone 5-1 in Fried's starts this year on the run line. With the way that Fried is pitching this year, I've almost forgotten about their Ace Gerrit Cole. Yankees to win on the run-line.
The Royals are 17-15 after winning nine of their last 10, including sweeping the Rays at Tampa Bay. They're doing it with pitching, allowing only 3.44 runs per game, and the bats have slowly come around. They've kept 20 games under the total this year so far. The reason I'm betting against the Orioles today is not only because they're 12-18 on the year, only 7-7 at home, minus-674 on the profit margin, but because Dean Kremer is starting for the Orioles who have lost four of his five starts this year with him allowing 11 runs in his last two starts. Michael Wacha is pitching for the Royals, and they've won his last two starts, with him allowing two earned runs. The Royals.
The Diamondbacks are at the Mets, who are 13-1 at home, but we're going to tackle another angle, and that's the total as the Diamondbacks have gone over six straight games to make them 15-10-4 to the over. The reason for the over today is because of Corbin Burnes, who's yet to get into a groove this season, with all five of his starts going over the total. The Diamondbacks score 5.2 runs per game and allow 5.03. Just the over as the Diamondbacks have lost five of their last six, with the other team doing most of the scoring.
The Rockies have lost nine straight games to bring their season total to 4-25. Their average score of 3.2 to 5.9 covers the run-line against. Chris Sale faced the Rockies last year and went seven innings and allowed no runs in a 3-0 victory. The Braves won his last two starts this season, with him allowing three runs total. The Braves are playing their best ball of the year on the 10-2 run that puts them one game under .500. They can make it to .500 today. Braves to win on the run-line.
The Padres swept the Giants the last time they played in September, but they've hit the skids in April after a fantastic start, losing four straight and scoring only three combined runs in those games. The bad place started in Detroit and then continued at home against Tampa Bay, who swept the Padres. I'm sure the lack of continuity is aided by Jackson Merrill being injured along Jake Cronenworth and Luis Arraez. But the Padres are sending Nick Pivetta to the mound, who has allowed no runs in three starts and one run in another start. The Padres are 12-4 at home and need to shake the funk. Padres to win.
The Rockies are 4-25 this season for a minus-1,939 profit margin. They score only 3.29 runs a game. The Braves have won eight of their last 10 games, and the bats have come alive, batting .303 over the last week. The Rockies have lost eight straight, and I think it's going to be a rough series with the Braves in town. Braves to win on the run-line.
The Rockies have won four games this year and lost 23, and they've been on a streak of seven straight losses, with five of the last six being by two runs or more. Bryce Elder has had some issues on the road this year, but the Braves have won his last two starts. The Rockies have lost four of Ryan Feltner’s five starts. I like the Braves here because they've won seven of their last nine playing great ball.
The Royals have won seven straight, including the last two against Houston, which they won 2-0, making it four straight unders for the Royals and under in 18 games on the year. Houston likes to stay under at 8-16 on the year, and they have their best pitcher going in Hunter Brown, who hasn't allowed a run in his last three starts. Neither team figures to have an offense roaring with the Astros averaging 3.5 runs scored a game and the Royals at 3.1. I'm on the under on this game.
The Rays have won three in a row while the Padres have lost three of their last four which is normally a situation you want to bet the team that's on the winning streak, but Dylan Cease is pitching for the Padres who won four of his five starts this year and I like him to win again today. Ryan Pepiot has had issues in his last two starts, allowing nine combined runs in 12 innings of work. The Padres bats have fallen to .260 as a team, but I like their winning ways to continue at home, where they're 12-2. Padres to win.