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SAN ANTONIO -- This is an impossible task. You should know that going in.
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| Robbie Hummel and Purdue are expected to be Big Ten favorites. (US Presswire) |
That's the only way to do this.
So I took everything we know right now into account, added some educated guesses and tried to project. Obviously, all my guesses will not be correct. Joe Alexander might return to West Virginia even though I don't think he'll return to West Virginia; If so, West Virginia will be a top 10 team. But for now, West Virginia is not a top 10 team, and that's the way this works.
Anyway, here's what I got.
So take a look and start the debate (as if I needed to tell you the second part).
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Ty Lawson
Comment: This is clearly based on Tyler Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington returning, along with Danny Green and Deon Thompson. Combine that quartet with an incoming recruiting class featuring Tyler Zeller, Ed Davis and Larry Drew, and Roy Williams should have the preseason No. 1 team, again.
2. Duke
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Taylor King (transferring)
Who I think will ultimately leave early: King
Comment: The lone starter missing from a 28-win team should be DeMarcus Nelson. Mike Krzyzewski will replace him with McDonald's All-American Elliot Williams, which is a good indication the ACC title will come down to North Carolina and Duke, just as it usually does.
3. Purdue
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Every relevant player from a 25-win team should be back, including E'Twaun Moore, Robbie Hummel and Keaton Grant. Thus, the Big Ten favorites will be Matt Painter's Boilermakers.
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: O.J. Mayo
Comment: Davon Jefferson's announcement that he will return to school was both surprising and a boost to the Trojans. They'll likely return four starters and replace Mayo with Demar DeRozan, another probable one-and-done prospect capable of posting big numbers as a freshman.
5. UCLA
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Kevin Love, Darren Collison
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Love, Collison, Russell Westbrook
Comment: The Bruins will be hit hard, like Memphis and Kansas. But Josh Shipp and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute should still provide a solid nucleus and be aided by the No. 1 recruiting class in the nation featuring Jrue Holiday and Jerime Anderson.
6. Georgetown
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Yes, Roy Hibbert, Patrick Ewing Jr. and Jonathan Wallace are all gone. But the Hoyas should return DaJuan Summers, Austin Freeman and a nice core to go with a stellar recruiting class led by Greg Monroe, otherwise known as the No. 1 incoming freshman in the nation.
7. Notre Dame
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Kyle McAlarney and Luke Harangody are two of the best players in the Big East, a splendid inside-outside duo. Mike Brey's been rumored to be in play at LSU. But if he leaves this roster it'll be a big surprise.
8. Tennessee
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: A late commitment from McDonald's All-American Scotty Hopson was huge because now the Vols will have a scorer to help offset the losses of Chris Lofton and JaJuan Smith. A possible starting lineup of Ramar Smith, Hopson, J.P. Prince, Tyler Smith and Wayne Chism should make the Vols the favorites to win their second consecutive SEC title.
9. Pittsburgh
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: If Levance Fields, Sam Young and DeJuan Blair all return the Panthers will have three double-digit scorers back from the team that won the Big East tournament. So now Jamie Dixon is probably just hoping Young doesn't make a bad decision and bolt for the NBA Draft, even if he does decide to test the waters and go through the process.
10. Michigan State
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Drew Neitzel's storied career is complete. But Tom Izzo should remain in good shape as long as Raymar Morgan returns, and the addition of freshman Delvon Roe will provide the star power to compete for another Final Four.
11. Louisville
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Earl Clark, Derrick Caracter
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Clark, Caracter, Edgar Sosa
Comment: The word around basketball circles is that Edgar Sosa is looking to transfer, perhaps to Miami. Still, the Cards should return three starters from their Elite Eight game with North Carolina and add Samardo Samuels and Terrence Jennings. So Rick Pitino will be fine, as usual.
12. Texas
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: D.J. Augustin
Comment: If Augustin returns, rest assured I'll have the Longhorns much higher, perhaps as high as No. 1 depending on what happens elsewhere. But for now the smart money has the All-America point guard entering the NBA Draft early even though he's not projected to be among the top guards selected. If that happens, expect Dogus Balbay to take over as UT's primary ball handler.
13. Gonzaga
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Gonzaga will be just as good as ever, if not better. And wouldn't it be nice if Josh Heytvelt returned to his pre-arrest form?
14. Connecticut
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Hasheem Thabeet
Comment: The core of these Huskies who were great in February should return, minus Thabeet. That's a big loss, both figuratively and literally. But the Huskies will be good again thanks to the addition of McDonald's All-American Kemba Walker.
15. Kansas
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Brandon Rush, Darrell Arthur
Comment: Assuming Mario Chalmers returns, the Jayhawks will have a great backcourt. Up front is where the question marks can be found. But Cole Aldrich should be effective, and the Morris Twins (Markieff and Marcus) are high-level recruits who will play immediately.
16. Memphis
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Derrick Rose, Chris Douglas-Roberts
Comment: Barring a miracle, Rose and Douglas-Roberts are gone, just like Joey Dorsey. So now the only question is whether John Calipari can use his William Wesley connection to lure Tyreke Evans and/or Devin Ebanks, the two top uncommitted recruits in the nation. For these purposes, let's assume the Tigers get one of the two. That would give them a core of Willie Kemp, Antonio Anderson, Robert Dozier, Shawn Taggart, Doneal Mack, Angel Garcia and Evans/Ebanks, which just might be good enough to compete for another Final Four.
17. Marquette
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: The talented guards could jump early, especially Jerel McNeal. But new coach Buzz Williams might be able to hold the roster together, and if so he'll have no problems continuing what Tom Crean started at Marquette.
18. Ohio State
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Kosta Koufos
Comment: Jamar Butler and Othello Hunter are gone, and Koufos is expected to follow them. That's unfortunate. But the Buckeyes will be talented either way thanks to the additions of incoming freshmen B.J. Mullens and Anthony Crater.
19. Villanova
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Malcolm Grant (transferring)
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Grant
Comment: Some believe Villanova is the leader for Tyreke Evans, a likely one-and-done guard who is expected to choose a college this month. If the Wildcats get him, they'll be higher than this. If not, they'll be lower. So for now I'm sorta splitting the difference, if you will.
20. Miami (Fla.)
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Miami just signed Frank Haith to an extension, and that's good for Miami. The Hurricanes won't surprise anybody this season, not with Jack McClinton and every key component returning.
21. Brigham Young
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Lee Cummard-Trent Plaisted will be the best one-two punch in the MWC and one of the best in the nation if Plaisted remains in school. I believe he will. And that's why the Cougars should win at least 25 games for the third consecutive season.
22. Arizona State
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Pretty much the entire ASU roster is back -- including James Harden, who should be a Player of the Year favorite in the Pac-10. I actually know some scouts who liked him last season more than O.J. Mayo and Jerryd Bayless.
23. Wisconsin
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: I made a promise to myself at some point during this past season that I'd never start a Bo Ryan-coached team any worse than No. 23 in any preseason rankings. So that's why I have Wisconsin at No. 23. It's that simple.
24. UNLV
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: Lon Kruger is a great coach and most of his good players are returning from a 27-win team, save Curtis Terry. So expect UNLV and BYU to remain at the top of the MWC standings for the third straight year.
25. Florida
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Marreese Speights
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Speights
Comment: Billy Donovan has his second straight stellar recruiting class on the way, a talented group of players led by Kenny Kadji and Eloy Vargas. The Gators won't miss the NCAA tournament again.
26. Oklahoma
Who has announced a desire to leave early: Nobody
Who I think will ultimately leave early: Nobody
Comment: This ranking is based on Blake Griffin returning to school, which remains very much up in the air. But understand that if Griffin enters the NBA Draft the Sooners won't be ranked in the preseason. Like I said at the top, this stuff is fluid.
Five teams that just missed the cut
• Baylor • Syracuse • Virginia Tech • Wake Forest • West Virginia
