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The countdown has concluded, and the Pac-10 has been dubbed the best conference in the country. And though you might disagree, I'm comfortable telling you that if you take issue with the selection it means you have no idea what you're talking about.
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| Darren Collison hopes to lead the Bruins to a third straight Final Four appearance. (US Presswire) |
And it's not even close, really.
The Pac-10 has more future pros than any other league (anywhere from eight to 15), more teams in the Associated Press top 20 than any other league (five) and fewer bad teams than any other league (maybe just one), and that last fact is the main reason the Pac-10 got the nod over the Big East and ACC. In the Big East, a good team can pencil in wins against South Florida, St. John's, Rutgers and DePaul. In the ACC, a good team can pencil in wins against Wake Forest and Virginia Tech.
But how many sure wins are there in the Pac-10?
Oregon State, probably.
But after that, everything is difficult, proof being how Arizona State -- with a pro in the frontcourt and a McDonald's All-American in the backcourt -- is the consensus pick to finish ninth in this league. It's bananas. And if that's not convincing enough, let me ask this: Regardless of whether a team is as good as UCLA or as bad as Oregon State, what two-game Pac-10 road swing can a school make and reasonably expect to sweep the trip?
At UCLA and USC?
No.
At California and Stanford?
No.
At Arizona and Arizona State?
No.
At Washington and Washington State?
No.
The only option might be at Oregon and Oregon State, and sweeping that trip would still require a school to beat an opponent that returns four starters from a team that made the Elite Eight last season. Bottom line, 16 of 18 league games for most Pac-10 schools will be against NCAA Tournament-caliber opponents.
That's a hard way to spend January and February.
But it's exactly why the Pac-10 is the best league in the country.
1. UCLA
The good: The core of the roster that just went to a second Final Four in two years is back. That means Darren Collison is passing the ball, Josh Shipp is shooting the ball and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute is dunking the ball. Add freshman center Kevin Love to the mix, and what Ben Howland has is a team capable of going to yet another Final Four.
| Predicted Finish | |
| Team | Postseason |
| 1. UCLA | NCAA |
| 2. Washington State | NCAA |
| 3. Oregon | NCAA |
| 4. Southern California | NCAA |
| 5. Arizona | NCAA |
| 6. Stanford | NCAA |
| 7. Washington | NCAA |
| 8. California | NIT |
| 9. Arizona State | NIT |
| 10. Oregon State | none |
The bad: Arron Afflalo left school early, just like former classmate Jordan Farmar. And though there are mixed opinions about whether the Bruins will miss their shooting guard, the reality is he was an All-American who averaged 16.7 points, and don't you have to miss that some?
The bottom line: The Bruins are the favorites out of Las Vegas to win it all, and that makes sense. The great talent is in place. The great coach is in place, too. So now it's just a matter of breaking through, and avoiding Florida in the Final Four, of course.
2. Washington State
The good: The reigning national Coach of the Year, Tony Bennett, fended off any temptation to leave WSU and returned with a new contract to boot. Looking at the roster, it's not difficult to see why. With Derrick Low and Kyle Weaver back, the Cougars are primed to be good again.
The bad: Last season was such an out-of-nowhere 26-victory campaign that people seemed to spend the months just waiting for the Cougars to collapse and snap back to reality. But the reality is they were a good team, not some illusion. So it'll be interesting to see if they can handle the pressure of being taken seriously, particularly now that Low and Weaver have established reputations as All-American candidates.
The bottom line: The recipe for problems is when a team is young, inexperienced, full of questionable character guys or poorly coached. Any combination of that can turn a promising season into a nightmare. But at Washington State, these simply are not issues. The Cougars are a team of accomplished veterans who seem like quality student-athletes, and they're coached by a respected tactician in Bennett. So my point is that though some believe Washington State will start looking like the Washington State of old, it's difficult to imagine anything other than injuries preventing the Cougars from stockpiling wins.
3. Oregon
The good: Four starters return from a team that made the Elite Eight before losing to Florida. The leading scorer is Bryce Taylor (14.8 points), but Tajuan Porter (14.4 points), Malik Hairston (11.1 points) and Maarty Leunen (10.8 points) bring a similar ability to put the ball in the basket.
The bad: Everybody likes to talk about the four starters returning, but the one who isn't was pretty darn good. His name is Aaron Brooks, and he might've been more important to the Ducks than any player in college was to the success of any particular team, save Kevin Durant at Texas.
The bottom line: Whether Oregon makes another deep NCAA Tournament run will likely revolve around Porter and whether he's capable of handling a more important role, not to mention the ball. It's one thing to focus on nothing more than launching 3-pointers, but with Brooks gone, Porter will need to figure out how to balance the art of scoring with the art of getting others involved. If he's successful, the Ducks will be successful. If not, things could slip a little.
4. Southern California
The good: The trio of O.J. Mayo, Taj Gibson and Davon Jefferson gives USC three likely NBA players on its roster, and how many college teams can match that number? North Carolina? UCLA? Maybe Memphis and Kansas and Georgetown and Indiana? We can debate the merits of each of those rosters, but either way it's a short list, and the Trojans are included.
| Accolades |
| First team |
| G - Darren Collison, UCLA |
| G - O.J. Mayo, Southern California |
| G - Chase Budinger, Arizona |
| F - Brook Lopez, Stanford |
| F - Kevin Love, UCLA |
| Second team |
| G - Derrick Low, Washington State |
| G - Kyle Weaver, Washington State |
| G - Bryce Taylor, Oregon |
| F - Taj Gibson, Southern California |
| F - Jon Brockman, Washington |
| Player of the Year Darren Collison, UCLA |
| Newcomer of the Year O.J. Mayo, Southern California |
| Breakthrough Player Quincy Pondexter, Washington |
The bad: Though the Trojans added some pros, they sure did lose a lot, too. Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt entered the NBA Draft early and are now with the Wizards and Celtics. Meanwhile, Lodrick Stewart exhausted his eligibility. So that's three starters who are missing.
The bottom line: No doubt this is a talented roster, but the question is whether that will translate into a successful team. Can Mayo get along with his teammates? Or will he self-destruct? These are the types of things Tim Floyd must know before the Pac-10 season starts. But if the talented freshmen meet expectations, then Southern California will make another deep NCAA Tournament run.
5. Arizona
The good: McDonald's All-American Jerryd Bayless highlights the freshman class, and he's joined by a pair of talented veterans in Chase Budinger and Jawann McClellan. Plus, Lute Olson brought Kevin O'Neill into the mix, and he could turn out to be the most important assistant in the nation, which would be nice given how he's already the highest paid.
The bad: The perception is that Arizona will be better without Marcus Williams, Mustafa Shakur and Ivan Radenovic, and that might be correct. But those are still three double-digit scorers missing, guys who combined to average 43.6 points last season.
The bottom line: What Arizona lacked last season was intensity, and O'Neill is one of the more intense guys in the business. Problem solved, right? If so, then the Wildcats will make yet another trip to the NCAA Tournament, and this time they won't lose to a team with inferior talent.
6. Stanford
The good: Lawrence Hill (15.7 points and 6.0 rebounds) and the Lopez Twins -- namely Brook (12.6 points and 6.0 rebounds) and Robin (7.5 points and 5.5 rebounds) -- provide Stanford with a dominant frontcourt. They can score, rebound and block shots, and what else do you need from interior players?
The bad: Brook Lopez is a special talent, but for Stanford to reach its potential, he needs to make it to class every once in a while. The 7-foot center is academically ineligible for the first semester, which isn't good. But as he returns in December in solid shape and of sound mind, the Cardinal will be OK once Pac-10 play begins, and all will be forgiven.
The bottom line: If Brook Lopez returns, I love this team despite some obvious backcourt problems. But if he doesn't, just pretend I slotted them lower, because without their dominant big man, the Cardinal can't finish sixth.
7. Washington
The good: The youth and inexperience is a little older and more experienced. Specifically, I'm talking about Quincy Pondexter, a sophomore who struggled late last season despite averaging 10.7 points and 4.0 rebounds. He should be better in Pac-10 play, and the return of Jon Brockman is key because the 6-7 post player nearly averaged a double-double in 2006-07.
The bad: Ryan Appleby averaged 10.5 points last season and is the only senior on the roster with previous experience at Washington. He figured to be a big part of this team, and he will be ... just as soon as he returns from a fracture on his right hand that likely will sideline him for the next six weeks.
The bottom line: It's hard to imagine Washington limping through a second consecutive season, but it's possible. I'm giving the Huskies the Pac-10's final at-large bid for now, but California and Arizona State are certainly capable of taking it instead.
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| Ryan Anderson's shooting touch contributes to one of the country's best frontcourts. (Getty Images) |
8. California
The good: DeVon Hardin pulled out of the NBA Draft, and Ryan Anderson never even applied for early entry. Consequently, the Bears have one of the best frontcourts in the nation, one that averaged a combined 27.0 points and 16.6 rebounds last season.
The bad: The backcourt is as much of a weakness as the frontcourt is a strength. Point guard Jerome Randle underwent a biopsy on his kidney this week and will likely miss at least a month. The next point guard in line is Nikola Knezevic, and he only averaged one point and less than one assist last season while playing 7.2 minutes per game.
The bottom line: The Bears are good up front, but that backcourt is shaky, which isn't good in a league with Collison, Porter, Low and Bayless. That's why though Cal could make the NCAA Tournament with this roster in some seasons, I'm guessing doing it this season will be difficult.
9. Arizona State
The good: Eric Boeteng, a transfer from Duke, is eligible after sitting out last season. He'll be joined in the starting lineup by Jeff Pendergraph (12.1 points and 9.1 rebounds) and McDonald's All-American James Harden, meaning the Sun Devils have a roster capable of competing.
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The bad: Herb Sendek is just in his second year, and the talent level is already up. But this is still a roster filled with young guys with no experience and experienced guys experienced in losing. Don't forget, the Sun Devils were 2-16 in the Pac-10 last season.
The bottom line: Put the Sun Devils in a non-BCS league, and they'd be picked to finish first or second, easy. But in this league it's going to be hard for them to avoid taking defeats, so a finish in the bottom third of the conference is probably unavoidable.
10. Oregon State
The good: Marcel Jones is back after averaging 15.3 points. He's joined by Kansas transfer C.J. Giles, who is as talented as he is troubled and set to start playing in December.
The bad: The OSU roster simply doesn't compare to the other Pac-10 rosters. Everybody else has at least one pro while the best Oregon State can do is Giles, who couldn't even cut it at Kansas.
The bottom line: This is not a good season to be Jay John. His career is by all accounts on the line, and there's no reason to think he'll finish any higher than 10th in the Pac-10. In fact, if he does, I'd suggest keeping the guy, because it will mean he's done one hell of a coaching job. But just so we're clear, I expect the Beavers to be bad and John to be bought out, sad as it is.