Bruce's Past Picks
Though the Avs were involved in their first "under" of the postseason in Saturday's loss to the Stars at Ball Arena, they had scored a whopping 35 goals across their first seven Stanley Cup games this spring. A bit manic, this Colorado, perhaps explaining the 2-1 deficit it must overcome vs. Dallas, but a good flag-bearer for the "over" trend in the second round that now stands 11-3 into Monday's games. Dallas precision has allowed it to score 12 goals across the first three games of this series, so a return to the higher-scoring trends in Game 4 would be no surprise. Play Stars-Avs "Over"
Tempo-wise, this matchup has slowed down since the regular season. With Luka Doncic hobbling, this is the pace at which the Mavs have to play...and they can do it, because Luka remains lethal in halfcourt sets. His usage rate is down in the playoffs, perhaps a reason scorelines have been a bit lower. Make no mistake, however, Dallas can play at this type of pace, though what we're not sure is if PJ Washington can keep scoring at the rate (28 ppg) he has the past two games. The 3s haven't been falling as consistently for OKC the past two games, and both of these sides have been trending "under" (Mavs 18-7 since late in reg. season, Thunder 8-3 last 11). Play Thunder-Mavs "Under"
Raise your hand if you've seen this before...the Celtics look great in Game One, bad in Game Two, and roll to a Game Three win on the road. That was the preceding series vs. Miami and it's been this series thus far vs. Cleveland, with not only the results sequencing the same, but the manner of the results. Mostly, it's been down to the defense, which has allowed the Heat and Cavs to crack the century mark just twice in the eight games between them this postseason. We already know Boston has enough offense with Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Derrick White & Co. Also note the Celtics have won and covered five straight in the playoffs back to last May. History repeating itself? Play Celtics
On a knife's edge! That's how this series has been conducted, with a succession of one-goal margins and a pair of overtimes in the first four games. Every game has been a toss-up, which is why we think Carolina is hardly out of this series despite being down 3-1 entering MSG tonight. But this series has done its part to sustain the "over" trend in the second round, landing that way in three of the first four games, with plenty of firepower on the ice to make it four of five; note the 14 different goalscorers in the playoffs for Carolina, while the Rangers have had Mika Zibanejad (13 points) and Vincent Trocheck (12 points) producing since the Caps series. Play Canes-Rangers "Over"
If not for bad luck, Corbin Burnes wouldn't have any luck, at least in his last three starts. He's received all of two runs of support across all of those three games combined, this from an offense that is usually very productive. With a 2.83 ERA, Burnes has certainly pitched well enough to get a few more wins. Meanwhile, Jose Berrios has looked increasingly shaky in his last three starts for the Jays, allowing four homers across that span and KO'd before the 4th inning was complete last week at Philly. The Birds also haven't lost back-to-back games in a month. Play Orioles on Run Line
Maybe we owe the Nuggets an apology, as their bottoming out in Game 2 last week might have been just that...a low point. Recovering as quality teams do, Denver looked like the champion Denver from last season when destroying the T-wolves on Friday. Getting Michael Porter (21 points) going on Friday night in Game 3 took some of the pressure off of Jamal Murray and The Joker. Meanwhile, the T-wolves showed some vulnerability in games where Anthony Edwards doesn't dominate (only 19 points in Game 3, well beneath what he is capable). No edge yet in this series to playing at home! Play Nuggets
There were oddities associated with Game 3, including a double-minor on the Bruins midway in the second period that gave the Panthers an effective five-minute power play, resulting in two Florida goals. All in all, there were four Panthers power-play goals in their 6-2 win in Game 3. Whatever the dynamics, it looks like Florida has solved Jeremy Swayman, as the Panthers forced him out of Game 2 and peppered him in Game 3, and not sure that a possible switch to Linus Ullmark in goal will help Boston stem the tide. Note that each of the first three games in this series have landed on the "over" side as have ten of the twelve games thus far in the second round. Play Panthers-Bruins "Over"
Is everyone giving up on Boston a bit too soon in this series? This is a big price to be giving the Bruins at home, and Game 3 included some fluky occurrences, such as that double-minor midway in the second period that gave Florida an effective five-minute power play in which they scored twice to put the Panthers up 3-0; the Bruins had to become desperate afterwards in an eventual 6-2 loss. We'll see if Jim Montgomery makes a switch in goal to Linus Ullmark from Jeremy Swayman, and Brad Marchand likely out on Sunday, but Boston is too good on the penalty kill to give up another four power-play goals as on Friday. Play Bruins on Money Line
Are the Knicks on borrowed time here? Adding Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby to the injured list (on top of Julius Randle, who's missed the past couple of months) have stretched Tom Thibodeau's bench pretty thin, and we don't envision another 35 points from Donte DiVincenzo that kept NY close on Friday in Game 3. Aside from that spurt at the end of the 3rd Q, the Knicks would have been much further behind in Game 3, and Indiana feeling much better about Tyrese Haliburton, who has recovered from his 6-point off-night in Game 1 to 34 and 35-point explosions, respectively, in the last two games. Play Pacers
Break up the...Chisox? Looking for their first series sweep of the season (and a 4-game sweep at that that), the Pale Hose have exposed Cleveland's shortcomings in its batting order, holding the Gs to just six runs across the first three games of this series. Sox starter Michael Soroka, who has pitched in some bad luck lately, might finally be the beneficiary on Sunday, as he could get some run support from Sox batters who will be hitting (at the outset, at least) against Logan Allen and his very-subpar 6.44 ERA. Play White Sox on Money Line
A bit more of a price than we usually like to lay on the Run Line, but we can make an exception with the Phils. That's because they have dominated the first two games of this weekend set by a combined 16-5 scoreline, and at an MLB-best 28-12 are beginning to conjure up comparisons to the breakthrough year of 1976, when starting the season at 50-20. Zack Wheeler has been almost untouchable on the hill, with a 1.64 ERA, and the woebegone Marlins (already 18.5 games behind the Phils in the NL East) roll the dice with Braxton Garrett, making his first start of this season. Play Phillies on Run Line
If you can't beat 'em, why not join 'em? We're talking about the spate of high-scoring games in the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, which continued last night with a pair of "over" results (9-1 in this round) in Panthers-Bruins and Oilers-Canucks. None of this is news to the Avs, whose games have more resembled sprint relays this postseason, with seven "overs" in a row back to the first round against Winnipeg. Jared Bednar would like a faster start tonight after Colorado fell far behind in each of the first two games vs. Dallas before rallying. But there is so much firepower on the ice, and the Avs clicking, that we're compelled to keep riding this pronounced second-round "over" trend. Play Stars-Avs "Over"
You can't win 'em all, and the Dodgers' seven-game win streak wasn't going to last forever. So it went last night when the Padres made three hits work for them at Petco Park in a 2-1 win. Even though the Dodgers lost, it was another stellar effort by the pitching staff, which has allowed just 14 runs across the last eight games, and hasn't allowed more than four runs across their past twelve games. James Paxton also off of a solid start last Sunday vs. the Braves, allowing just one run in 6 2/3 IP. The worry with the "under" here is that SD's Matt Waldron hasn't been sharp lately, though we doubt the Padres offense does much damage. Play Dodgers-Padres "Under"
Stop us if you've heard this before...Boston lays an egg in a home playoff game. It happened again in Game 2 vs. the Cavs, the 14th loss in the last 28 home playoff games for the Celtics. Usually, however, Boston recovers quickly, as the case in the first round vs. Miami when the Celtics similarly lost Game 2 at TD Garden before roaring back to win the next three. Cleveland might be hard-pressed to hit another 55% from the floor as in Game 2, and Boston's defense has held foes beneath 100 points in five of seven playoff games this spring. Expect Tatum, Brown, and White to step up as they so often have for the Celtics in recent years. Play Celtics
Often in the past, especially in the playoffs, when the Celtics are looking to bounce back from a poor effort at home, it is the Boston defense that steps up and restores order. Such was the case in the first round vs. Miami, when the Celtics (as in this series) lost Game 2 at home, but recovered to throttle the Heat in Games 3 and 4, and finished that series allowing just 85 ppg across the last three games. Remember, Cleveland's offense had been erratic earlier in these playoffs, and another 55% shooting display might be wishful thinking for Cavs backers. If form holds, it's Boston's defense that will allow the Celtics to regain the edge in this series. Play Celtics-Cavs "Under"