Spoke about it on Early Edge, but if you didn't catch the show, I'm going to fade Zach Eflin to get a full six innings here today. Away from the friendly confines of his home ballpark, and now in Fenway, this should not be an easy task. While the Red Sox record does not speak to them having much success this season, they actually have produced as one of the top-10 teams in MLB against right handed pitching of late. With a fairly rested bullpen, the Rays and Kevin Cash should have a bunch of arms at their disposal, and Eflin's pitch count has not been above 94 this year, which doesn't inspire a ton of confidence he has the leash to work deep here.

Looks like all systems are go for Baltimore's lineup tonight so I like getting plus odds here on Jose Berrios to stay under six innings. His last start in Philly heavily skews his home and road splits but we know historically he's been better at home, and this one is in Baltimore. Berrios had trouble with men on base in each inning last time out, finally being pulled after a grand slam by Bryce Harper, which was largely thanks to a walk and two hit by pitches. The O's should regress vs righties at some point, after being league average last year but posting abysmal numbers thus far. Also interesting; in the two starts Berrios has pitched "outdoors" in 2024, he's gone under six innings.

Propstarz tipped me off to the price here and it’s certainly good enough for at least a half unit in my opinion. Gore has actually not been bad this year, despite a shortened last start, and the matchup with Boston could be worse, as they've only been slightly better than average of late vs lefties. Need to enter the 5th inning here and I think Gore has enough strikeout stuff to work out of trouble he may face, plus the Sox have been prone to the punch out vs lefties.

The M's could use some length after Bryan Woo went just 4.1 innings last night and I don't believe the recent numbers for the A's vs righties are telling of future performances. They had a few great games vs inferior arms, but I think Miller is talented and can cut through this lineup with relative ease in Seattle. Joey Estes had two starts in MLB last year, with one against Seattle, and he gave up 9 balls hit over 100mph that day. He hasn't been good in AAA so far, with an ERA over six and his xERA was nearing eight last year in those two MLB starts. Backing the MLB level hitters to tear into him and Miller to shut down the A's bats.

Mason Black got to four strikeouts against the Phillies in his debut, but that came with a ton of pressure as family, friends, and college coaches were all in attendance. The close-to-home debut for Black didn't pan out as he had hoped, but he threw well for the first four innings before it all unraveled in the 5th thanks to a Bryce Harper home run. I'm not really convinced he has the length to go much beyond five innings but I do believe we have some value on this number at +133 for a 5th strikeout against this Reds team in San Fran. Worth a half unit in my opinion!

Spoke about this spot on Early Edge this morning and I think at the +110 that is out there at MGM, there is still value here. Gausman in my opinion projects as one of the better strikeout pitchers in MLB and he turned in a nice eight punch out performance last time out against a tougher to whiff Nats team. Now he faces a Twins team that's running exceptionally hot, and some of their high strikeout rates from last year have been cut in half, making me believe they are due for regression in the K department. Gausman on six days of rest, with this being his 7th day, and the Jays could really use a great start here, plus Phil Cuzzi behind the dish.

Lance Lynn has failed to eclipse this line in 3/4 starts recently but we also saw some good strikeout potential earlier in the year, so it's been a mixed bag for him. Of late, the Brewers have seen their strikeout rate increase vs right handed pitchers but adding Christian Yelich back in to the lineup should certainly help to cut down on strikeouts a bit. Regardless, I think this should be priced closer to -160 or at 5.5 for plus odds to the over.

At nearly +140 here, this is well worth a half unit at least, even if we're on the other side of the 6th inning. Ranger Suarez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this year, and yet he isn't even the best pitcher on his own team. He had a three start run of pitching into the 7th inning before ending after six his last time out, but against Miami here, this is a lineup he can work efficiently against and get deep into the game. The Marlins haven't produced much vs lefties and they don't walk often either; both should help Ranger here. Also played Suarez to Record the Win (+105 DK).

The Yankees can draw walks and make life miserable for opposing pitchers but they have also allowed 9/12 right handed starters to go over 4.5 Ks this year. Taj Bradley certainly had his own issues last year but he still had a solid swinging strike rate above 11% and he went for at least 4 strikeouts in 19/21 starts. He should be around this number with ease based on his track record, as long he's pitching well, plus he threw 92 pitches in his last start at AAA, so I don't anticipate many restrictions here. Across those two starts at AAA, Bradley racked up 15 strikeouts in 11 innings, and I really believe this number should be at 5.5 minimum.

Just played this at +115 on Draftkings. Keaton Winn was looking like a solid starter for the Giants before his last start in Philly, where he hit a major speed bump, going only 0.2 innings and allowing five earned runs. Winn was sick before that game though, with sinus headaches and body sweats/chills, yet he still tried to power through for his team, but to no avail. The weakness Winn felt made it tough to grip his pitches and the rain delay then pitching in cold/wet weather certainly didn't help. I'll draw a line through that last start and bet on him in a plus matchup against Colorado to bounce back, with both an over on his outs and strikeouts, at some good prices.

After the Giants had to use five relievers behind Jordan Hicks' five inning performance last night, I'm going to bet on Keaton Winn to have a bounce back here. He only lasted 0.2 innings in his last start but he's said to be back to full health now and this matchup against the Rockies doesn't scare me much. At +125 on DK, I see value in playing the over on 15.5 outs here.

Some less than stellar strikeout performances of late have kept Jordan Hick's line really low here at only 3.5... He should easily be able to strike out four batters with his stuff and I'm not going to allow a letdown last time out stop me from playing the over against a Rockies lineup that's yielding the third most strikeouts vs righties this season and has kept it up of late. Played at -125 on DK. Lookout for my article on SL later today with more on this, as I also played a ladder here; 5 Ks (+140 Caesars), 6 Ks (+270), 7 Ks (+575).

This Baltimore lineup has been crushing opposing left handed pitchers and as I mentioned this morning on Early Edge, I like the Orioles right handed hitters to get to Andrew Abbott here. He's struggled with home runs to righties, with five given up in 25 innings, and the band box that is Great American Ballpark is not likely to help his cause. Abbott has allowed 30 baserunners in those 25 innings vs righties and should see at least seven of them today. With rain in the forecast, a delay would likely help us out by cutting the starting pitchers' days short, but if not, I still think fading Abbott and his 7% swinging strike rate is the move here.

I've been impressed with the consistency of Tanner Houck, who is just one out shy of going at least six innings in each of his starts this year. Moreover, I'm impressed when I look back at his year over year stats and see how he's kept nearly a 13% swinging strike rate in four straight seasons now. This year, he's looked the best I've seen him, and Minnesota was one of the worst teams for strikeouts in the early going but since April 22nd they've played only the White Sox and Angels, leading to much more offensive output and a decrease in strikeouts. I think this is a spot where they regress back and I'm happy get the 5.5 line again on Houck!

Hopping on this one again, as I mentioned last time on the Early Edge, I think Jordan Hicks is a really solid pitcher, has some good strikeout stuff and should be able to strike out five batters in any lineup. Last time out against the Pirates, I really liked the spot for not only a bounce back performance but a big one, and Hicks delivered with nine strikeouts. I'm not in love with this matchup but I do believe the line should be at least 5.5 on him so I'll play the over. -115 on Draftkings!