Bob's Picks (3 Live)
Bob's Past Picks
Cleveland scored 118 points in their game two victory. However, they’ve failed to score 99 points in games one and three. In their first series against the Magic, the Cavaliers failed to score 99 points in five of seven games, only averaging 95.9 throughout. Boston has been holding their opponents to 88 points on the road in the postseason.
Josh Hart leads the league in rebounding in the playoffs. Hart has had 14 rebounds, or more, in five of last seven playoff games. He’s had at least 13 rebounds in every game this series and comes off having 26 rebound chances in game three. Hart has played 41 minutes, or more, in every playoff game thus far and will continue those high minutes especially with Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby sidelined.
Donte DiVincenzo has logged 43 minutes, or more, in the four straight. Indiana has allowed the 2nd most points to shooting guards and DiVincenzo had scored 23 points, or more, in four out of the six meetings against the Pacers. This season, when playing 40+ minutes, he’s had 23 points, or more, in 11 of his last 14 games.
There’s some better odds out there for this one. When Jayson Tatum’s PRA line is set at 42, he’s gone over this number once this postseason, 43 against Miami in game one. This season, he’s played the Cavaliers five times and has failed to go over 42 PRA in all five. Tatum has not gone over his PRA, when set at 42, in six of his last eight road games which include five straight.
This number seems a little inflated. However, New York is shorthanded. Josh Hart has played 41 minutes, or more, in every game this postseason. Now, with OG Anunoby out, he definitely isn’t coming out, unless he’s in foul trouble. With his PRA set at 36, Hart has gone over that number in five out of the eight playoff games thus far. Also, when he’s played 44 minutes, or more, his PRA has gone over 36 in five of the last six games.
Donte DiVincenzo has logged 43 minutes, or more, in the three straight. He’ll see 40+ minutes, now with OG Anunoby out for the next two games most likely. Indiana has allowed the 6th most points to shooting guards and DiVincenzo had scored 21, or more, points in three out of the five meetings against the Pacers. This season, when playing 40+ minutes, he’s had 21 points, or more, in 10 of his last 13 games.
Luka Doncic doesn’t seem right at the moment. He’s gone under his PRA in nine of his last 15 games when the line is set at 50.5. In the playoffs, his gone under, 50 PRA, in six of eight. Doncic shot 6/19 from the floor and had the worst +/- out of anyone in game one. He should have some positive regression in regard to scoring, but he isn’t 100% healthy. Oklahoma City is healthy with plenty of young above average on-ball defenders to continue throwing him off his game.
Donte DiVincenzo has seen an increase in minutes. He’s logged 43, or more, minutes in the last two games and should continue to see 40+ minutes, especially with Mitchell Robinson out for the remainder of the season. Indiana has allowed the 6th most points to shooting guards and DiVincenzo had scored 20, or more, points in three out of the four meetings against the Pacers. This season, when playing 40+ minutes, he’s had 17, or more, points in 10 of his last 12 games.
Luka went over this number early in the season against the Thunder. Their most recent game, in February, he went under 50. With his PRA set at 52, Doncic went over this number three times in his last eight games and once in his last five. Oklahoma City’s head coach, Mark Daigneault, will have Lu Dort on him all series with hopes to slow him down. Dort is an above average on-ball defender and with a great young defense behind him.
Indiana won two out of three games in the regular season. Donte Divincenzo averaged 24 points per game in those three games, shooting 36.1% from beyond the arc. Besides, Jalen Brunson, the Knicks have struggled offensively, at times. If Indiana doubles Brunson, others will be required to step up. Divincenzo had two solid shooting games in the six games against the Sixers and should see some positive regression in his scoring this series.
Miami lost their best hitter in Luis Arraez to the Padres. They’re struggling offensively, hitting .216 with a .597 OPS on the road this season. They also have a very low walk rate against righties. Jake Boyle has good velocity on his fastball and is backed by an offense hitting .294 with a .959 OPS over the last seven days.
Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen is listed as questionable tonight. The Cavaliers are 8-15 SU as away underdogs, losing by an average of 7.48 points and have lost their last seven as dogs as well. They’ve lost down games in Orlando by 30.5 points while also doing under their team total in both contests. The Magic are 21-6 ATS as home favorites this season. This is a zig-zag theory type of series with home court meaning everything.