Matt's Picks (4 Live)
Matt's Past Picks
Think I've gotten a colonoscopy more often in life (one) than I have played an Under 5.5 in an NHL game. But have to here with not only Auston Matthews out for Toronto but also Boston forward Danton Heinen, who had 17 goals and 19 assists during the regular season. He has five shots and an assist in the series. Here's hoping for 2-2 at the end of regulation because I'd really like to see OT and a Toronto win in front of that rabid fan base -- plus then we get a Game 7.
Obviously a crazy number but it was -450 and might get back there if the Bucks are simply playing games with the notion that Giannis and Dame Lillard will play. It actually wouldn't shock me if Lillard did, but I can't believe the Greek Freak might risk serious injury that would already end Milwaukee's 2024-25 season. Besides, even if he did play, how remotely close to 100 percent? As a fan? Would love to see a Game 7 with a relatively healthy Bucks team. As a bettor? End it tonight.
Guess I understand why the Yankees are favored with Carlos Rodon looking very in form so far this season and it being the season debut of Kyle Bradish off injury for the Orioles. But Baltimore generally hammers lefties like Rodon as it ranks third in the majors in OPS vs. southpaws. Yanks closer Clay Holmes likely not available after pitching 1.2 innings last night.
Can't believe I'm backing the Marlins but wow that Colorado lineup is bad today with a few regulars out in a getaway game. Marlins pitcher Edward Cabrera can dominate one inning and walk four the next. He generally is much better at home. In three career starts vs. Colorado, he is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA. Really no pitching props I liked, though.
If the Kings had started David Rittich before Game 4 in net, maybe they aren't facing elimination on Wednesday. Maybe if I was taller, I'd be in the NBA (probably not). I'm assuming Rittich again here, and he played well Sunday in the 1-0 loss but also only faced 13 Oilers shots. I guarantee you at least double that many for Edmonton back home. Instead of -195 on the ML, let's do this great price on the puckline because if the Kings are down a goal with about five minutes left, they probably pull Rittich that early with the season on the line (as opposed to the final minute or so of a regular season game), and the Oilers can theoretically pile on.
Only 9 left on our board is at DraftKings, and runs should be at a premium with Yoshinobu Yamamoto (0.00 ERA in two road starts) opposed by Jordan Montgomery -- Monty was supposed to pitch last night but was scratched when the game was delayed for a while at the start due to a hive of bees behind home plate. Reminds of a Little League game I had canceled due to bats (the vampiric kind not the hitting instrument).
Justin Verlander looks just fine at age 41 for Houston, while Cleveland's Triston McKenzie (4.91 ERA) has seen a big drop in velo since his last fully healthy 2022 season. And the bullpen behind him is super-thin as the Guardians' top three high-leverage guys led by closer Emmanuel Clase have pitched three of the past four days so are probably all unavailable. Thus, we will avoid first five.
Surprising decision by Vegas coach Bruce Cassidy to bench No. 1 goalie Logan Thompson tonight for Adin Hill, the 2023 playoff hero. Thompson has been very good in this series with a 2.35 GAA and .921 SV but the Knights have dropped the past two. Partly due to injury/illness and also obviously due to Thompson, Hill has played in only three of the Knights' last 16 contests (last on April 18) in which he was 1-2 with a 3.68 GAA. Seems like a panic decision and at some point, the home team is winning a game. Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger has allowed exactly two goals in the past three games and if he does again, I'll take my chances.
The Braves haven't been swept this season and I'm sure would prefer not to be. Their offense has gone to sleep of late but I think wakes up some today vs. M's rookie Emerson Hancock. ATL's Chris Sale has been quite strong other than one start. One good thing about this series so far is that Atlanta has not used any of its high-leverage relievers so they are all ready to go today. Mariners closer Andres Munoz pitched 1.2 innings last night and thus surely is not available. Because of the state of the bullpens, I opted not to do first five.
This series has been good to us so far. Really think the books continue to overvalue the Rays -- this is not the same club that made the playoffs each of the past five seasons. Also the end of a six-game trip for Tampa Bay ahead of the longest homestand of the season, so perhaps a natural letdown spot. Zach Eflin is 0-2 with a 4.76 ERA on the road. His 2023 season continues to look like a massive fluke.
Did not think this would get to 9 (ESPNBet has 9.5) and while I don't love it will play a little simply as getaway games in Detroit tend to be lower scoring and the winds are blowing in from right field a fair amount. Tigers pitcher Kenta Maeda has a 5.96 ERA but comes off his best outing of the season and has been very solid in three of his past four overall. Interesting (to me anyways) fact about Cards pitcher Miles Mikolas. He is one of 13 active MLB pitchers with 180 appearances and 150 starts who has faced 29 different MLB foes but the only one who has not faced the Tigers as their final opponent. That could help our cause.