This is a prop that would've cashed in 13 of the last 14 start against the Mariners, the team that strikes out the most in the league. Their strikeout rate isn't much better against lefties than righties, so putting plus odds on getting to just five Ks means the opposing pitcher must be dreadful. Yet Alex Wood has a reasonable 7.7 K/9 but has struggled to pitch deep enough into games to get to five Ks. The string of pitchers to get to five Ks against Seattle includes multiple who didn't finish the fifth, so I still see value even if Wood has a relatively short outing.

Miles Mikolas has surrendered 30 runs in 42 innings and been rocked for eight home runs, including three in a short start against Milwaukee on April 20. That was one of his three times in the last five starts failing to get through five innings while allowing five or more runs. The Brewers smoke righties to the tune of a .782 OPS and star outfielder Christian Yelich has looked great since returning from IL earlier in the week. The Cards haven't leaned heavily on their bullpen over the last three games despite losing them all, and they should be satisfied if Mikolas can get through five innings relatively unscathed, though there's a real chance he's chased early.

Michael Soroka has been lit up all season while walking more batters than he's struck and allowing eight home runs en route to a 6.34 ERA. One of those homers came at the hands of Josh Naylor, whose 11 dingers this year include three in the last three games. I like a sprinkle on Naylor homering again today, but I really like taking him to collect an RBI at plus money with Soroka's penchant for putting runners on the basepaths.

These teams put up a lot of runs in a 10-9 Pittsburgh win yesterday, and I feel like today could be more of the same thanks to the pitching matchup. Kyle Hendricks has posted a 12.00 ERA in five starts while surrendering eight homers in 21 innings, and all of those stars have featured 9+ runs. Bailey Falter has lived up to his name in recent starts while surrendering seven homers in 37.1 innings, notable with the wind blowing out. Falter also has to contend with a Cubs team that has posted a 136 OPS+ against lefties versus a 98 against righties, and the team may need him to eat innings with six relievers throwing a combined 115 pitches yesterday.

Mason Black ran into trouble in his first MLB start the third time through the order, but he had put together a strong performance before hitting that wall. The Giants encouragingly gave him a chance to work through it and post his highest pitch count of the season. He'll have a better matchup today against a Reds offense that has cratered in May (.527 OPS) and has the fourth most strikeouts per game on the season. Black owns an 11.0 K/9 rate in his minor-league career, and I don't believe that type of pitcher should be heavily favored to stay under 4.5 Ks in a plus matchup.

John Means was brilliant in his 2024 debut, but this is an awful matchup for a repeat. The D-Backs have extreme OPS splits based on the handedness of the pitcher, lighting lefties like Means up to the tune of a .853 OPS. This start also comes at home, where Means has been slightly worse in his career than on the road, but the other important point is that he's made just seven MLB starts since 2021 and we just can't expect this type of length unless the game is unfolding perfectly like it did in his first start and last rehab start. With Arizona having an offense that should cause trouble, I can't see Means getting through six innings despite being favored to do so.

Simeon Woods-Richardson has allowed four earned runs in four starts, one with two ER and two with one ER. His 1.74 ERA may be a bit fortunate, but making him a strong favorite to give up at least three earned runs today doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The Blue Jays average just 3.58 runs per game and own a below-average 88 OPS+ against righties. The offense has gotten worse in May, with just a .624 OPS overall, and with Woods-Richardson coming off his best start of the season, I think these odds are skewed in the wrong direction.

Jose Butto's worst start of the season came against the Cardinals, but he also managed to pitch 5.2 innings while allowing four earned runs. That qualifies as his second shortest start of the season, as he's pitching six innings in every other start except when he walked five Dodgers. His workload has consistently been at 90-plus pitches, and if you're throwing 90 pitches, you're likely to be pitching into the sixth inning. I like taking Overs on both 15.5 outs and 4.5 strikeouts today at affordable prices.

Luis Gil is walking a ton of batters this year, but an incredibly low .224 BABIP plus a very high K rate has helped him deliver a 3.19 ERA thus far. But now he's up against the team that strikes out at the lowest rate in MLB at 6.47 Ks per nine innings. Only two pitchers in the last two weeks struck the Astros out six times, and they got that sixth K in the seventh and eighth inning of their starts. I think Gil needs to pitch into the seventh inning to get over this total, so this is a nice value on this prop.

Quinn Priester has been done in by the long ball in two of his three starts, but I don't think he'll have to worry about that much against an Angels team without many power threats, especially as the highest OPS against righties on the active roster this year has been Luis Rengifo's .771 (min. 20 PAs). The Angels have scored just one run in three straight (and four of their last five), and this game is juiced to Under 8 runs even though a 5.91 ERA is on the other side. I think we're getting the Priester Under here at a discount.

Cole Ragans is all good after being removed from his last start with a calf injury, which was diagnosed as just cramping and should not limit him in this outing. That means we should expect a gem from the Royals ace, as the Brewers have hit just .198/.304/.326 against lefties as a team. I'm going for more value on the K prop here rather than Over 16.5 outs, as the Brewers strike out more than 25% of the time against lefties and Ragans has reached seven Ks in four of five starts where he's thrown more than 76 pitches, but I think both are strong plays that have a great chance of hitting.