Chet Holmgren has had a terrific rookie season and his excellent play has carried over to the playoffs where he is averaging 15/8/3. Holmgren has been a bit quiet so far against Dallas but I like this as a buy low spot for the young Center, considering Holmgren averaged 24.4 PR in the regular season, despite logging significantly fewer MPG than he is in the playoffs. So far Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford have done a good job on Chet, however I believe we'll see him be more aggressive in Game 4 and I like his chances to have his best game of the series.

PJ Washington has come up clutch and has dropped back to back huge performances which had led to Dallas winning two consecutive games. Washington dropped 29 points in Game 2 and then followed that up with a 27 point performance in Game 3. OKC is a very good defensive club and I have confidence that they adjust, in addition to Washington likely coming back down to earth.

This is a steep price to pay and I typically avoid this much juice, however I am working with a significant edge here. Lorenzen has been a reliable arm for the Rangers and gone 6 IP in four consecutive starts, however his K metrics are not pretty and suggest hes running hot on strikeouts, despite a 19.2% K rate. Lorenzen also gets an extremely tough draw against the Guardians who have excellent career numbers facing him. Shop around as there are significantly better numbers on the market.

Love fading Zach Eflin tonight against the Red Sox at Fenway park. For starters, Eflin has some drastic home vs road splits and has been significantly worse on the road. He will be pitching in Boston in a hitter friendly environment. Eflin has only eclipsed 90 pitches just once this season and will face a Red Sox lineup that is 9th in OPS against opposing righties. Credit to A-Mags for jumping on this spot early.

The Phillies have been absolutely on fire which spells trouble for Sean Manaea. It also bodes poorly for Manaea that the Phillies have excellent career numbers against him. Manaea doesn't typically have a long leash or pitch late into games. I like the Phillies chances of having success off the lefty and almost any pitcher right now would be an underdog to go 6 IP versus the way the Phillies are looking, especially one as volatile as Manaea.

Going back to the proverbial well with fading Derrick White's RA line. He has only eclipsed this line in one playoff game this season and has been held under in 25 of his last 28 playoff games dating back to last season. I expect a paced down game with minimal possessions which should provide a low scoring environment that isnt conducive to high RA totals.

This is a big ask any time you're facing a lineup as lethal as the Atlanta Braves. Severino has pitched well this season but this feels like a natural let down spot for the 9 year veteran. He will face a Braves lineup that hasnt been quite as dominant as last season but I would argue has under performed, despite ranking in the top 10 in most batting metrics.

Patrick Sandoval is having another solid season for the Los Angeles Angels. He will face a very tough Royals lineup that has been excellent against opposing southpaws. The Royals possess the 2nd lowest K rate in the league this season. I would also offer that Sandoval is running hot on strikeouts and the advanced metrics suggest he is a regression candidate.