I project another high scoring affair here as these two meet for the 9th time this season. On 7 occasions they've combined for 233 or more points and had just 203 in the other. Sure, Game 3 went OT, but even at the end of regulation there were 222 points on the board. Bucks still lacking their best bigs to defend, Pacers are a bad defensive team, and MIL can slow the pace down occasionally, but not enough to hold this under 220. The 3 meetings in IND have produced 249, 272 and 250 points. Yeah, D rules in the playoffs, and unders have been prevalent, but not here. Pacers scored 121+ in 6 of 8 vs MIL;113+ in 7 of 8.

Tatis has cooled way off after a hot start, but he sees this starter very well and many of his teammates do as well and Tijuan Waker is making his first start of the season and those can tend to go sideways quickly. Tatis has homered off him several times before and is due for a bomb himself and likes hitting at home. Padres must be licking their chops after seeing some aces lately

Neither of these teams is hitting a ton but I like the M's ability to win close low-scoring games, something they find themselves in a lot of. Logan Gilbert looks like an ace again, while the Arizona rotation has some issues, especially after the top two arms. The kid going today doesn't look anything like what he did in the playoffs (it happens) and is giving up a hit an inning. Mariners have been covering this regularly against NL teams (7 of last vs Senior Circuit). Gilbert can be downright unhittable and I like him in a day game with the sun/shadows

We have been on the young Pirates starter since his first outing of the season and continue to look for different ways to back Jared Jones. Wipeout stuff and a lot of self confidence serving him well first trip through the league. Big ballpark should help him here, I like him in a matinee and all we need is to stay lose. Giants are not a goof baseball team and we avoid some bullpen variance, Jones is 2nd in MLB in K/W ratio in the 1st 5 innings, 6th in WHIP, 9th in K/9 and 19th in BABIP (.196), forcing ugly ABs and soft contact on bad swings. He starts fast and we don't need a ton out of the Pirates bats

We know he can drop 30 at any time and he started coming out of his fog in the second half of the last game and he's overdue for a big night from the floor and you can only defend him so long as the series goes on. I expect him to be more assertive tonight, get to the line more and challenge a beat up Kawhi inside and project him to score over 27 tonight

I thought this series had major sweep potential going in and figured these games could get sideways. With the LAC bringing their A game in the opener I took a step back but this now looks like the series I expected, albeit a little lower scoring. That plays in the Mavs hands. LAC was the 23rd ranked team in D ranking from ASG on, and Kawhi isn't close to being healthy and this quick turnaround on road is a problem. Chippy series favors Dallas and Mavs content to win games comfortably under 200 points. Luka can negate Harden, Mavs back to loading up in twos in the paint (bet they top 52 paint points from Game 3) and Kyrie finally found touch G 3.

I get it, I guess, Patrick Corbin stinks (we've faded him a bunch) and not much was though of the Nats for 2024. And Ryan Weathers has been one of very few bright spots for the Marlins. But the Nats have a legit pen and Miami's is awful. The Nats can generally catch the ball and they grind some ABs and they are spunky late in games. Miami rolls over, all the time. Miami has 6 wins in 28 tries and I am getting good plus-money on the better team winning over 9 innings. Miami is 2-13 at home. Nats are 10-10 vs everybody they've faced except the Dodgers. Far from horrible. I have to play the Nats to get the sweep here