Yeah the Rockies just swept the Rangers, which no one saw coming ... But it came at Coors Field, where the Rox are bad, but just not historically awful. However, COL is somehow 3-16 on the road and 10 of those losses have come by 2 runs or more. The Friars are basically .500 home or road, and are 7-3 in their last 10 to pull into second in the AL West. Dakota Hudson is 0-5 for COL with a 6.35 ERA (though he has been better on road) and COL has lost 5 of his 7 starts by 2 runs or more. The key bats in the Padres lineup all have favorable splits against Hudson

Luka still looks slowed, but the Mavs have cranked up the defensive intensity and seem better primed to win lower-scoring games. Playoff series tend to be a grind, and winning ugly is key. DAL is dominating offensive boards (5% higher in OReb%), and taking away one of OKC super powers. Thunder led NBA in drives/G, points off drives (36.5) and 2nd in drive FG% (53.6%) in reg season. In this series those numbers drop to 30 drive PPG, and 41.8% drive FG%. Forcing OKC to try to make up for that scoring loss from range, where they are hit or miss. Holmgren can get tossed around by Dallas bigs and even with SGA going off, OKC scoring is too streaky from the supporting cast.

Mitch Keller went 9 innings last time out and threw a season-high 109 pitches. But he has been suspect for most of the season and last time he faced the Brew Crew he gave up 6 hits and 4 ER in 5 IP. In fact he's allowed at least 4 ER in half of his 8 starts. He's also allowed a homer in 5 straight starts. MIL held the Pirates to 10 runs in their previous 4-game series. The Brewers are 6-1 when Colin Rea pitches and like Bryse Wilson he keeps outperforming what many expected of him this season. MIL beats up on the lesser teams - 13-4 vs sub .500 clubs like the Pirates.

Boston had the letdown game in the second contest in both series, then Tatum got a little angry and they started to outclass a lesser opponent on the road. The Cavs are way too reliant on Donvan Mitchell, they really miss Jarrett Allen and the Celtics will beat them again behind the arc and draw fouls in the paint. Boston doesn't play a ton of close games and they tend to win by double digits and the Cavs will continue to fall behind by 9+ points (every game so far) and struggle to keep things close as the series unfolds

The Marlins are 5-14 on the road. Sixto Sanchez has been getting blown up in the first inning, and while he did settle in better in some recent starts, he's going to be a difficult circumstance here. Matt Manning probably won't provide a ton of length here but I like At Hinch's ability to mix and match if he has to. The Fish have lost 8 of their last 9 on the road.

We saw ANT take over and dominate the first two games of this series. No reason he can't do it again. The Wolves will fight hard not to give up that home-field advantage they won in Denver. I expect Edwards to look to drive and attack the rim with abandon after a more tepid Game 3 and get to the line 10 times. He's too driven and creative to be held down again and it's pretty clear that this team operates at a higher level when he is dropping 35+.

The Nuggets have been an incredibly slow starting team all postseason save for a few nights ago. I don't see them revving it back up like that here. They caught the Wolves a little full of themselves but MIN will crank the defensive intensity back up. They didn't build 30-point leads on Denver by accident. I expect them to feed off the crowd and ride their starters hard and get the Nuggets back on their heels.

The Wolves needed to get knocked down a beg after 6 straight mostly-emphatic playoff wins, That came but I don't think Denver is deep enough to keep that up, and I expect ANT to dominate at home Sunday afternoon. MIN is the better team and the deeper team and the bigger team. I don't think Jamal Murray is healthy enough to have another game like that and I don't think the Wolves have back-to-back stinkers at home. What they did to the Nuggets in Denver was no fluke. They bounce back here and out the champs on their heels

Acuna will soon be destroying baseballs in the first inning again. He's crushed Severino before. We are starting to get significant value here for someone with his special power. I like him to ambush an early-count fastball tonight

Ozuna remains one of the dominant run producers in the sport. He has gotten to Severino before in a very limited sample size and comes into this game with 38 RBIs and 6 in his last 7 games.

The Bravos have won 4 in a row and they've done it without hitting much. Severino is off to a nice start for the Mets, but he can be pretty erratic and I love what guys like Acuna and Ozuna have done to him in their careers. Atlanta is going to breakout in a big way, it's just a matter of time, and the Phillies dropping one to the Marlins earlier today should have them thinking and managing for the sweep of a lesser Mets team here.

I am backing Lugo vs AL teams until given a reason not too. He continues to confound and confuse hitters and he is the best starter on a much-improved Royals staff. Patrick Sandoval is already 2=5 for the Angels, who have had more success than I figured in this series but are due for a long one. Royals are 5-1 in Lugo's 6 starts vs AL teams, the only loss coming to the mighty Orioles, and they won all 5 of those games by 2 or more runs.