Mike's Past Picks
I like this buy low spot on the Astros and Hunter Brown. I have Houston winning 54 percent of simulations which implies -118. The Astros are off to a slow start to the season but they're still 7th in team wOBA against right-handed pitching with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball. I have concerns with Peralta throwing his fastball over 50% of the time considering the .361xwOBA and double digit barrel rate.
I played the Yankees +100 on SuperBook. I make them 54% winners against Pablo Lopez in these conditions which implies this money line should be -117. Marcus Stroman should be in line for a quality start with winds blowing in and low humidity in Minnesota.
I played New York at -125 on SuperBook. I have the Yankees winning 59 percent of simulations which suggests this money line should be -144. Paddack has been decent for Minnesota so far, but I have concerns with his slider (.373 xwOBA) and his changeup (.399 xwOBA) against the power lineup the Yankees will run out there. Rodon has been great and the bullpen is rested after a day off. I'm on the Yankees.
I'm playing the Royals again on Friday at (-108) as my sims have them winning 56 percent of the time with Alec Marsh vs. Griffin Canning, which implies a moneyline of -127. Canning has struggled with his fastball, and the Royals don't strikeout much vs. RHP (2nd fewest in MLB at just 17.9%).
Big travel spot for both teams as the Angels are traveling from Pittsburgh (6-game roadtrip) and the Royals from Kansas City. Detmers has been okay but KC projects as a strong hitting team against lefty fastballs. I make the Royals 55 percent winners which implies a moneyline of -122.
I have the Royals winning 59 percent of simulations with Brady Singer vs. Joe Ross which implies a money line price of -144. Lock it in at -120 on FanDuel.
I make the Rangers 61 percent winners, which implies a money line price of -156 in this matchup with Andrew Heaney vs. Alex Wood. Oakland has played well so far but they're getting too much respect here with Alex Wood on the mound who has really struggled with his sinking fastball and changeup this season.
I played the Dodgers (-105) on Superbook. I make LA 55 percent winners, which implies this line should be -122. 40-year old Charlie Morton is vulnerable to left-handed hitters, and the Dodgers have a few of the best in the game. Back the Dodgers as short home favorites.
I like the Red Sox at -104 (FanDuel) or -105 (Caesars) as I have Boston winning 55 percent of simulations, which implies a money line price of -122.
I have the Cubs winning 57 percent of simulations in this matchup with Shota Imanaga vs. José Buttó, which implies a money line price of -133. Buttó has largely over performed so far as his xwOBA is over 60 points worse than the actual wOBA, and the hard hit rate is at 50 percent. I'm on the Cubs.
I'm on the OVER at the opening number of 8.5 on DraftKings and Caesars. Both teams are top 5 offenses against right-handed pitching, with low strikeout and high walk rates. With temps in the 90's and winds blowing out this should play like a midsummer game in Baltimore. I'm on the OVER while a 5-4 game cashes a ticket. This total should be 9.5 (-115).
I make the Royals 54 percent winners in this road matchup which implies a moneyline price of -117. 24-year old Reese Olson is going to be a fine pitcher at some point, but I don't like the hard contact against this lineup.
Locking this in now at -118 on FanDuel. I make the number -137 (57.8% sim win%). I like this Orioles lineup against left-handed pitching, and I have major concerns with Tyler Anderson's barrel rate and massive gap in wOBA vs. xwOBA. I will share more on the Early Edge Wednesday morning.
I played the Astros -110 on SuperBook (also available at Bet365). I have Houston winning 56 percent of simulations which implies -127. I think this is a good buy low spot as we get a friendly wind day at Wrigley against a lefty.
Reid Detmers has been good to start the season for the Angels, but I like this Orioles offense against left-handed pitching. Baltimore has the ability to run 8 right-handed hitters to start the game if they want to. This is a nice individual matchup for Rutschman, Mountcastle, and Santander. I have the Orioles winning 53 percent of simulations which implies -113.