Zack's Past Picks
The Oklahoma City Thunder should already be eliminated with as poor as they have played offensively against the Dallas Mavericks. Yet, they found a way in game four with a late rally at Dallas, and all it takes is that one game for a team to wake up in the postseason. Take the Thunder to finally look a bit more fluid offensively for the first time since game one.
Luis Severino of the New York Mets has had quite a turn around to the start of the 2024 season, but today is a spot to fade. Over his last two starts on the road he has had innings of allowing three runs to the San Francisco Giants and Tampa Bay Rays. In a divisional game look for that to be a factor for the Marlins. Take the Marlins as the slight home underdog.
Seattle and starting pitcher Luis Castillo will try and cool off the Baltimore Orioles bats. In yesterday’s series opener the Orioles scored nine runs, and won easily 9-2. Look for Castillo to fare better as he allowed just two hits to the Orioles in last year’s start. Grab the Mariners to cash as the slight road underdogs.
During this postseason we have seen the Indiana Pacers be a resilient group off a loss. Game five featured a high level effort from the Knicks in particular Jalen Brunson. Expect the Pacers to re-adjust defensively and be more aggressive on the offensive end of the floor. This goes seven games like the Twolves-Nuggets. Lay it with the Pacers.
Today is a rare spot to back the Houston Astros on a favorable home price. On paper today’s pitching matchup is a big upper hand for the Milwaukee Brewers. Yet, Freddy Peralta has been more vulnerable over his last four starts, and is facing a red hot Astros team. Take Houston to overcome any early inning issues from pitcher Hunter Brown and win their sixth straight game.
The Minnesota Twins head into their next series against the Guardians without the benefit of a day off. Still, this should be a motivated team to break out of a poor three game losing streak. At the plate the Twins were held scoreless in consecutive games, and scored just a total of one run. That may be a factor today but Guardians starter Tristan McKenzie has received an average of just 1.6 runs over his last three starts. Back the Twins.
The Pittsburgh Pirates took game one of their road series against the Cubs yesterday 5-4. Today, they will get to see Kyle Hendricks for the second time in five days. Although Hendricks only gave up two hits and one run, he did have four walks. Also, his troubles at home where he boasts an ERA over ten are a big concern. The Pirates had several warning track fly balls yesterday, and should get a big inning off of Hendricks. Take the Pirates.
The Oklahoma City Thunder were in a dire spot in game four but thanks to Shai Gilgeous Alexander pulled out a dramatic win. Points have now become harder to get as the series extends, but Chet Holmgren has the game to clear his points prop. He had a nice flurry of points in the second half of game four with a couple of deep shots, and needs to be more aggressive to get to the free throw line. Look for Holmgren to build off his game four performance and go over his points prop.
If the New York Knicks are going to get by in game five, I believe it’s going to be based on a top tier performance from guard Donte DiVencenzo. Donte has been a bright spot all season long against the Indiana Pacers, where he averaged 24 points in the regular season and is near those numbers in the postseason. Expect twenty plus shots from DiVencenzo and for him to bounce back from a poor game four performance.
The story throughout the postseason have been injuries. We have seen it effect nearly every team in the Eastern Conference, except the Indiana Pacers. The youth of the Pacers now have supreme confidence and have figured out how to wear this Knicks team down for four quarters. One could argue they should be up 3-1 in this series. Look for the Pacers to use the same attack mode in game five to get their first win at MSG in the series, and put big doubts on the Knicks postseason. Take the Pacers.
The Tampa Bay Rays are a team that may be .500, but have signs of turning the corner. They are 6-3 over their last nine games, including taking yesterday’s game one 5-3 in Boston. Additionally, Nick Pivetta was hit hard in his first start in over a month last Wednesday, surrendering three home runs to the Braves. Take the Rays to win two in a row against the Red Sox.
Monday, look for the Reds to be a bit flat at the plate after an extra inning game yesterday against the San Francisco Giants. They’ll face lefty Jordan Montgomery who just limited the Reds to two runs over seven innings his last start, in a 4-3 Diamondbacks win. Look for a similar result today that will come under the total by a run or two. Take the under.
In game three we saw the Celtics offense run through their two stars in Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown. That led to a combined sixty one points scored out of the Celtics 106 total points. After a quiet game three look for Payton Pritchard to get back in the scoring column as he did in games one and two of this series. The shots are there and with Derrick White struggling Pritchard may need to be more aggressive. Take his combination prop over in game four.
Boston won game three at Cleveland thanks to solid overall defense. As a team Boston limited Cleveland to just ninety three points. Offensively, the Celtics still have a ways to go to be the team we saw in the regular season. A player that needs to get back to his nightly consistent play is Derrick White. Look for White to get his shot back to an extent tonight, and get over his points prop.
In the night cap I’ll tail Nikola Jokic over his points. After winning game three the belief is there for Denver. Game four is going to be an all out battle, and I expect Jokic to be that much more aggressive with his shot selection. This very well could be his best points production game of the postseason. Take his over on points.