Jack Flaherty has flashed brilliance at times this year, but he's consistently racked up strikeouts no matter the matchup, including punching out seven against the team with the lowest strikeout rate in the league in his last start. That should be enough to expect six Ks as a baseline even against teams like the D-Backs that don't strike out a ton, though I'll note that their lineup is much worse overall against righties than lefties. I think this number needs to be 6.5 for a pitcher with an 11.7 K/9 rate on the season.

Miles Mikolas led the majors in hits allowed last year, and his hit rate is even worse in nine starts, leading to an ugly 6.19 ERA. Lefties have a 141 OPS+ against him this year, and Rafael Devers has extreme splits favoring righty matchups this year. He's also been locked in at the plate with homers in three straight and 2+ bases in nine of his 15 games in May. There's a reason this prop, which is typically heavily tilted toward the Under, has balanced odds on each side, and I think it's worth backing the Over here.

Braxton Garrett was knocked around in his debut, but I was encouraged to see him strike out eight batters in 5.1 innings while issuing just two walks and throwing 80 pitches. That pitch count coming out of rehab gives him a great shot to get into the sixth inning again here, especially as the Mets offense has performed worse against southpaws and has scored more than two runs in the first six innings of just one of their last eight games. I think we're getting a discount on a good pitcher in a good matchup based off one start that wasn't as bad as his ERA says.

The Cubs have lost four of their last five, but I love this spot for them. Both offenses do much better against lefties than righties, but the Cubs can counter those Pittsburgh splits by sending one of MLB's best pitchers to the mound in Shoto Imanaga, who has surrendered just five earned runs in eight starts. He also missed the Pirates series last week, while the Cubs saw Bailey Falter last Sunday, which could lead to more offensive success here. I think the Cubs are an interesting play at -0.5 on the run line as well, but I'm going for the bigger odds with this pick.

Luis Gil has been nearly unhittable this year, including surrendering just six hits over 18.1 innings in his last three games. All of those starts lasted at least six innings and all were against better offenses than the White Sox, who are 0.71 runs per game behind the 29th-best offense in the league (that's about the gap between No. 29 and an average offense). Gil's issue this year has been walks, but the White Sox draw the second fewest number of walks per game, and with the wind blowing in at Yankee Stadium, he should be well set up for another six-inning start.

Keaton Winn has been battered in two straight starts, giving up 12 earned runs in just 4.1 innings. Now he faces the top scoring offense in the league in the Dodgers, who feature three players with an OPS over 1.000 against righties. And the Giants may just need to let Winn take the hits if things start to go south as they've played two straight 10-inning games and needed five innings from the 'pen in each, all while not having a single off day in May to regroup. I'd make the Over the clear favorite here.

The Athletics' competitive stretch appears to be over, with losses in seven of their last nine games, all but one by multiple runs (and needing to score 11 to cover in the one-run loss). They've surrendered at least eight runs six times during that stretch and now face an Astros team that posts a 123 OPS+ against lefties with southpaw starter JP Sears getting lit up in two of his last three starts. Ronel Blanco could turn this game into a laugher, and even if he struggles, the Astros have the potential to win a 9-5 type of game.

The Braves have won five of their last six games, but it's not like the offense has been crushing it, scoring just 22 runs in that stretch. The pitching has been phenomenal, and Chris Sale has been a big part of that recently, giving up just two runs in his last three starts combined. But the Cubs are just outstanding against southpaws, posting a 132 OPS+ that should give them the chance to hang enough runs on the board to either win or stay close against a Braves offense that has just an 86 OPS+ in May.

Ryan Weathers has allowed 17 earned runs in his last five starts, so it's not like he's been pitching well, but the Marlins have allowed him to record over 15.5 outs in four of those outings. While their bullpen hasn't been as bad as the rotation, a 119 OPS+ against is certainly nothing to crow about. Weathers has thrown at least 90 pitches in five of his last six games, and against a Tigers team that doesn't hit lefties particularly well (89 OPS+), I expect Miami to let him pitch into the sixth again, so I'm surprised the Under is the favored side here.

This is a prop that would've cashed in 13 of the last 14 start against the Mariners, the team that strikes out the most in the league. Their strikeout rate isn't much better against lefties than righties, so putting plus odds on getting to just five Ks means the opposing pitcher must be dreadful. Yet Alex Wood has a reasonable 7.7 K/9 but has struggled to pitch deep enough into games to get to five Ks. The string of pitchers to get to five Ks against Seattle includes multiple who didn't finish the fifth, so I still see value even if Wood has a relatively short outing.

Miles Mikolas has surrendered 30 runs in 42 innings and been rocked for eight home runs, including three in a short start against Milwaukee on April 20. That was one of his three times in the last five starts failing to get through five innings while allowing five or more runs. The Brewers smoke righties to the tune of a .782 OPS and star outfielder Christian Yelich has looked great since returning from IL earlier in the week. The Cards haven't leaned heavily on their bullpen over the last three games despite losing them all, and they should be satisfied if Mikolas can get through five innings relatively unscathed, though there's a real chance he's chased early.

Michael Soroka has been lit up all season while walking more batters than he's struck and allowing eight home runs en route to a 6.34 ERA. One of those homers came at the hands of Josh Naylor, whose 11 dingers this year include three in the last three games. I like a sprinkle on Naylor homering again today, but I really like taking him to collect an RBI at plus money with Soroka's penchant for putting runners on the basepaths.

These teams put up a lot of runs in a 10-9 Pittsburgh win yesterday, and I feel like today could be more of the same thanks to the pitching matchup. Kyle Hendricks has posted a 12.00 ERA in five starts while surrendering eight homers in 21 innings, and all of those stars have featured 9+ runs. Bailey Falter has lived up to his name in recent starts while surrendering seven homers in 37.1 innings, notable with the wind blowing out. Falter also has to contend with a Cubs team that has posted a 136 OPS+ against lefties versus a 98 against righties, and the team may need him to eat innings with six relievers throwing a combined 115 pitches yesterday.

Mason Black ran into trouble in his first MLB start the third time through the order, but he had put together a strong performance before hitting that wall. The Giants encouragingly gave him a chance to work through it and post his highest pitch count of the season. He'll have a better matchup today against a Reds offense that has cratered in May (.527 OPS) and has the fourth most strikeouts per game on the season. Black owns an 11.0 K/9 rate in his minor-league career, and I don't believe that type of pitcher should be heavily favored to stay under 4.5 Ks in a plus matchup.

John Means was brilliant in his 2024 debut, but this is an awful matchup for a repeat. The D-Backs have extreme OPS splits based on the handedness of the pitcher, lighting lefties like Means up to the tune of a .853 OPS. This start also comes at home, where Means has been slightly worse in his career than on the road, but the other important point is that he's made just seven MLB starts since 2021 and we just can't expect this type of length unless the game is unfolding perfectly like it did in his first start and last rehab start. With Arizona having an offense that should cause trouble, I can't see Means getting through six innings despite being favored to do so.